Algonquin Adventures / 2018 Ice Out Predictions?

**Posted by Kevin** 4/03/2018 12:52 pm

Sounds like Env Canada is following after the forecasters down here in the States. If they expect between 3 and 15 inches of snow they go into hyper mode and tell everyone to get ready for a major storm. Then we get an inch. Drives me crazy.

**Posted by sdmoulto** 4/03/2018 7:26 pm

Heading out into the interior on a lengthy trip April 29-May 12......really starting to get nervous the first half of my trip could be delayed or cancelled, it just does not seem to want to warm up in Algonquin. No warm temps or rain in sight for the next 2 weeks.....

My Ice out prediction was between April 25-27, but that is only 3 weeks away! If the warm weather doesn't come real soon we could be looking into May already, what does everyone think?

Sean

Last edited by sdmoulto (4/03/2018 7:33 pm)

**Posted by ATVenture** 4/04/2018 7:06 am

sdmoulto wrote:
Heading out into the interior on a lengthy trip April 29-May 12......really starting to get nervous the first half of my trip could be delayed or cancelled, it just does not seem to want to warm up in Algonquin. No warm temps or rain in sight for the next 2 weeks.....

My Ice out prediction was between April 25-27, but that is only 3 weeks away! If the warm weather doesn't come real soon we could be looking into May already, what does everyone think?

Sean

Looking at the long range forecast on TheWeatherNetwork.com I think starting Monday things are going to start changing pretty quickly. You also have to remember that there are other contributing factors like daylight hours. Not only is the sun getting hotter but its out for a long time (when it does show itself). It looks like next week is supposed to start off sunny and not so warm, which will get rid of all the snow we are getting right now, then near the end of the week it looks like its supposed to warm up considerably with lows above 0 which will be a HUGE help. I think next Friday (9 days from today) we will be able to predict ice-out with a fair bit of accuracy.
I still beleieve the ice will indeed be off the lakes in time for trout opener, however I'm not convinced the interior of the park will be open for trout opener.

On a side note - They are still grooming snowmobile trails North of Temagami and I still plan to put a couple hundred KM on my snowmobile before calling it quits for the season. They are saying it has turned out to be one of the longest lasting sledding seasons in many. many years.

Last edited by ATVenture (4/04/2018 7:08 am)

**Posted by RobW** 4/04/2018 8:14 am

Looking at the Visitor Center web cam, the park did get some snow overnight but it sure doesn't look like the 10-15cm that was forecast.

As ATVenture said, the amount of daylight makes a big difference. We've passed the balance point where we now have more than 12 hours a day of light and that all adds up. Bo always used to say that we needed 5 consecutive days of lows above 0 to open up the lakes. Sometimes it takes a bit longer than that, but I've found his 'rule of thumb' to be about as accurate as anything.

It looks like it could be tight for the trout opener, which is only a big issue for me because my oldest only has the 28-30th off between the end of his work term and starting classes again. He doesn't really have the option of taking a long weekend for us to go fishing later in May.

From a climate perspective, I'm always happy to see the ice out date in line with historical norms. It isn't that we aren't seeing changes, but ice cover is a 'big' thing that if we start consistently seeing open water a lot earlier than in the past will have a big impact on ecosystem changes. Less snow cover already has an impact allowing herd animals to disperse more while also making it easier for carnivores to move around.

**Posted by Lenny** 4/04/2018 11:11 am

Going to be a late ice out, I highly doubt the park will be open for trout opening weekend.

**Posted by sdmoulto** 4/05/2018 6:18 am

I'm very up in the air about how the ice out this year is going to play out.

1. We are ahead of schedule compared to last year with snow and ice cover, we had more snow and ice last year and lake ice was tight to shore up until April 10th last year and the ice was out April 25 and park open April 28. HOWEVER, we already had double digit highs this time in April last year, we did NOT have this unusual April cold snap.

2. Warm weather is coming soon. Most lakes in the Ottawa Valley have anywhere from 12 to 20 inches of ice, however 80% of the snow cover is gone. Like I said we are well ahead of last year with snow and ice cover, but we did not have these cold April temperatures last year. If the warm weather can just stop knocking on the door and break right in, we could actually be in for an earlier ice out than last year.

3. These current temperature patterns for March and April are a concern, we still have 3-5 days left of this brutal cold snap. Even though we are further ahead compared to last years snow and ice coverage, if it does not warm up soon, TIME will become the trout opener's worst enemy, only 22 days from now.

4. Bottom line - IF it warms up soon, I still think an April 25th-April 27th ice out is in the cards. However if this weather continues, canoes will not be in the water till May.

Sean

**Posted by sdmoulto** 4/05/2018 6:25 am

Hope the weather gods allow you to get the weekend with your oldest off, those are good times and not to be missed!

Sean

RobW wrote:
Looking at the Visitor Center web cam, the park did get some snow overnight but it sure doesn't look like the 10-15cm that was forecast.

As ATVenture said, the amount of daylight makes a big difference. We've passed the balance point where we now have more than 12 hours a day of light and that all adds up. Bo always used to say that we needed 5 consecutive days of lows above 0 to open up the lakes. Sometimes it takes a bit longer than that, but I've found his 'rule of thumb' to be about as accurate as anything.

It looks like it could be tight for the trout opener, which is only a big issue for me because my oldest only has the 28-30th off between the end of his work term and starting classes again. He doesn't really have the option of taking a long weekend for us to go fishing later in May.

From a climate perspective, I'm always happy to see the ice out date in line with historical norms. It isn't that we aren't seeing changes, but ice cover is a 'big' thing that if we start consistently seeing open water a lot earlier than in the past will have a big impact on ecosystem changes. Less snow cover already has an impact allowing herd animals to disperse more while also making it easier for carnivores to move around.

**Posted by sdmoulto** 4/05/2018 6:32 am

Here is Lake Opeongo on April 10th, 2017. Ice locked in tight to shore and still solid snow coverage. Ice was completely out 15 days later.

Sean

**Posted by sdmoulto** 4/05/2018 6:35 am

POSITIVE NOTE: We are well ahead of last years snow and ice coverage at this point! Just posted a pic of Lake Opeongo on April 10th, 2017. IF the warm weather comes soon, we could be in luck!

Sean

AlgonquinLakes wrote:
I drove across 60 today and there was still lots of ice. It wasn’t super encouraging. I’m beginning to think my April 14 pick is trouble.

This was the view at Two Rivers.

**Posted by RobW** 4/05/2018 9:05 am

Local reports are that the low was -22C in the Hwy 60 area last night. That is ice building temps, not ice melting. I'm heading back to the cottage tomorrow night and I'm not expecting any less ice than we had a week ago.

**Posted by sdmoulto** 4/05/2018 9:14 am

Its very very hard to stay positive with the current temps BUT these are very unusual and will not last. The ice vanished from Algonquin last year within 14-15 days. The spring warm weather is coming and it will all happen faster than you think. Although these temps are extremely cold and unusual, the melt will come quickly.

Sean

RobW wrote:
Local reports are that the low was -22C in the Hwy 60 area last night. That is ice building temps, not ice melting. I'm heading back to the cottage tomorrow night and I'm not expecting any less ice than we had a week ago.

**Posted by breed85** 4/05/2018 9:46 am

sdmoulto wrote:
Its very very hard to stay positive with the current temps BUT these are very unusual and will not last. The ice vanished from Algonquin last year within 14-15 days. The spring warm weather is coming and it will all happen faster than you think. Although these temps are extremely cold and unusual, the melt will come quickly.

Sean

RobW wrote:
Local reports are that the low was -22C in the Hwy 60 area last night. That is ice building temps, not ice melting. I'm heading back to the cottage tomorrow night and I'm not expecting any less ice than we had a week ago.

I'm glad someone is staying positive!

**Posted by DanPM** 4/07/2018 8:21 am

The FOAP website activated its annual ice-out page today: http://algonquinpark.on.ca/news/ice-out.php

Luckily for anglers, Algonquin Park's trout fishing season opens late this year based upon the way dates fall on the calendar. Trout fishing season opens April 28, 2018 (the fourth Saturday in April) and Algonquin Park remains a fish sanctuary until then. The bad news for anglers is that below average temperatures are forecast until almost April 20, giving little time for substantial melting prior to the opening of trout fishing season, about a week later. At this time, many long-time ice watchers are predicting ice out in late April or early May. Stay tuned for more precise details in the days ahead.

**Posted by AO_GordB** 4/08/2018 3:52 pm

This picture was taken earlier today: Bill Swift on Source Lake, and there is 25 inches of ice:

**Posted by breed85** 4/09/2018 6:31 am

Interesting.
A year ago this Wednesday (April 11)... AO tweeted out this pic from Source lake (18" of ice).
https://twitter.com/algonquinoutfit/status/851933311928807425

**Posted by RobW** 4/09/2018 8:15 am

I had 19" at the cottage when I drilled the water hole Friday night. More significantly there was NO sign of the hole by noon on Saturday. Even in the middle of winter it usually freezes up but the top part of the hole is still there. This time I couldn't even tell where I had drilled.

Starting to look like it will be a May ice out.

http://www.youtube.com/user/kayakcamper · **Posted by Uppa** 4/09/2018 8:16 am

I was supposed to head into the park on May 4th. While I think that date might end up being bang-on opening day this year, I've got too many moving parts involved in my vacation plans to take the risk. So I just pushed it back 10 days. I wouldn't have moved it back quite that far, but according to my wife, me being in Algonquin on Mother's day is "a bad thing".