Algonquin Adventures / 2018 Ice Out Predictions?

**Posted by Chuck Enwinde** 3/27/2018 1:48 am

ATVenture wrote:
Chuck Enwinde wrote:
Was on one of the bigger lakes near Huntsville yesterday and measured 16" of ice. I'll be back up this coming weekend. We'll see how much ice we lose with the warmer temps and rain in the forecast.
How was the fishing?

Fishing was OK. I was after Moby the pike using a couple of big frozen herring I got from Nipissing earlier in the season. . Got one pike about 10lbs and one Laker about 7lbs. Moby did not make an appearance. Thinking this Friday might be a good one

**Posted by ATVenture** 3/29/2018 4:57 pm

Tried to drive the Brent Road today, could only make it in about 3km off the highway, the road turns into a snowmobile trail which is still considered open. Lol. Maybe next week Ill bring my snowmobile.

**Posted by AlgonquinLakes** 3/29/2018 7:16 pm

I drove across 60 today and there was still lots of ice. It wasn’t super encouraging. I’m beginning to think my April 14 pick is trouble.

This was the view at Two Rivers.

Last edited by AlgonquinLakes (3/29/2018 8:53 pm)

**Posted by ATVenture** 3/30/2018 8:26 am

I'm not sure about ice thickness, but we are ahead of last year in terms of snow on the ground. There is far less this year than their was at the same time last year. This will allow the shorelines to hopefully open up quicker when we get some more warm days with sun. There were a few parts of Kiosk that were opening slightly at shore, but still lonnnng ways to go!

**Posted by Chuck Enwinde** 3/31/2018 7:50 am

Was back up in Huntsville yesterday and measured 12 inches of ice on one of the bigger lakes. Same spot had 16 inches last Sunday.

**Posted by RobW** 4/01/2018 8:02 pm

We were drilling through 18"+ of ice at the cottage today. At least 12" of that was clear ice, not white ice. That's an hour south of Hwy 60 off Hwy 62. Based on that ice thickness and looking at the 14 day forecast for our area, I'm expecting it to be at least another 2 weeks before our lake opens up. That's usually 1-2 weeks before the Hwy 60 lakes open up in the park.

We'll see what happens but despite the very limited snow cover I think we're on track for a fairly typical ice out date.

**Posted by ATVenture** 4/02/2018 7:09 am

Woke up this morning to more snow on the ground and -15 on the thermometer. It doesn't feel like Spring is ever going to come around here in North Bay. All of the highs are below 0 for the next week, with some lows around -15. I don't think we are going to see much of a change around here in the next week or so, but after next week I think we are going to get into some serious wind, rain, and warmer temps.
My new prediction is April 20.

**Posted by vanslyke** 4/02/2018 9:55 am

I have a trip planned for may 11th-14. Im thinking ice will only be out for a week-two weeks tops. Makes for a chillier trip but I prefer that to swarms of black flies lol.

**Posted by breed85** 4/02/2018 10:15 am

I've been starting to think of alternate plans for my May 3-6 weekend.
Getting worried...

**Posted by hartski** 4/02/2018 10:33 am

I also have an early trip booked but I am not going to begin worrying just yet. Why? In comparison to last year, modis images show we are further ahead. Also, despite the first week of April appearing to be a bit chilly, for what its worth the long term forecast shows a seasonal warming trend. In my experience, those middle weeks of April are most determinate of ice out, not this week. If that is interrupted or delayed I will worry. For now, I'm predicting a typical ice out, between the 27th and 29th.

**Posted by MatteoP** 4/03/2018 9:47 am

How do you guys think the 30+ cm of snow this week, will affect the melt??
That is a lot of snow!! Another 5-10 on Friday!!!

**Posted by Dead_Weight (DW)** 4/03/2018 10:19 am

don't shoot me but I picked may 10th ...

**Posted by RobW** 4/03/2018 10:31 am

Looking at the forecast temperatures, I doubt there will be anywhere near 10-15cm of snow accumulated today or the 10cm forecast for tomorrow. With temps hovering above 0 today and forecast for -1 tomorrow, it's more likely that it will be rain/freezing rain. Env Canada seems to have adapted a policy of forecasting the max possible precipitation rather than the statistically most likely amounts.

A really rough ratio of snow:rain volume is 10:1. Lots (and lots and lots) of variables but as a ball park 10 cm of snow is equivalent to only 1 cm of rain. So, if the forecast precipitation comes down as rain, then it's only 1 - 1.5cm of rain today and 1 cm or rain tomorrow.

Even if snow does accumulate it's still white snow on top of white ice so it won't have much impact on how much sunlight is reflected or how much heat is absorbed.

**Posted by Kevin** 4/03/2018 12:52 pm

Sounds like Env Canada is following after the forecasters down here in the States. If they expect between 3 and 15 inches of snow they go into hyper mode and tell everyone to get ready for a major storm. Then we get an inch. Drives me crazy.

**Posted by sdmoulto** 4/03/2018 7:26 pm

Heading out into the interior on a lengthy trip April 29-May 12......really starting to get nervous the first half of my trip could be delayed or cancelled, it just does not seem to want to warm up in Algonquin. No warm temps or rain in sight for the next 2 weeks.....

My Ice out prediction was between April 25-27, but that is only 3 weeks away! If the warm weather doesn't come real soon we could be looking into May already, what does everyone think?

Sean

Last edited by sdmoulto (4/03/2018 7:33 pm)

**Posted by ATVenture** 4/04/2018 7:06 am

sdmoulto wrote:
Heading out into the interior on a lengthy trip April 29-May 12......really starting to get nervous the first half of my trip could be delayed or cancelled, it just does not seem to want to warm up in Algonquin. No warm temps or rain in sight for the next 2 weeks.....

My Ice out prediction was between April 25-27, but that is only 3 weeks away! If the warm weather doesn't come real soon we could be looking into May already, what does everyone think?

Sean

Looking at the long range forecast on TheWeatherNetwork.com I think starting Monday things are going to start changing pretty quickly. You also have to remember that there are other contributing factors like daylight hours. Not only is the sun getting hotter but its out for a long time (when it does show itself). It looks like next week is supposed to start off sunny and not so warm, which will get rid of all the snow we are getting right now, then near the end of the week it looks like its supposed to warm up considerably with lows above 0 which will be a HUGE help. I think next Friday (9 days from today) we will be able to predict ice-out with a fair bit of accuracy.
I still beleieve the ice will indeed be off the lakes in time for trout opener, however I'm not convinced the interior of the park will be open for trout opener.

On a side note - They are still grooming snowmobile trails North of Temagami and I still plan to put a couple hundred KM on my snowmobile before calling it quits for the season. They are saying it has turned out to be one of the longest lasting sledding seasons in many. many years.

Last edited by ATVenture (4/04/2018 7:08 am)

**Posted by RobW** 4/04/2018 8:14 am

Looking at the Visitor Center web cam, the park did get some snow overnight but it sure doesn't look like the 10-15cm that was forecast.

As ATVenture said, the amount of daylight makes a big difference. We've passed the balance point where we now have more than 12 hours a day of light and that all adds up. Bo always used to say that we needed 5 consecutive days of lows above 0 to open up the lakes. Sometimes it takes a bit longer than that, but I've found his 'rule of thumb' to be about as accurate as anything.

It looks like it could be tight for the trout opener, which is only a big issue for me because my oldest only has the 28-30th off between the end of his work term and starting classes again. He doesn't really have the option of taking a long weekend for us to go fishing later in May.

From a climate perspective, I'm always happy to see the ice out date in line with historical norms. It isn't that we aren't seeing changes, but ice cover is a 'big' thing that if we start consistently seeing open water a lot earlier than in the past will have a big impact on ecosystem changes. Less snow cover already has an impact allowing herd animals to disperse more while also making it easier for carnivores to move around.