Offline
Just got back from a drive to Samuel de Champlain park and the rivers are flowing great. Moore lake is about 50% ice free. Pimisi Lake (start of the Mattawa River) is completely ice free on the North end because of the high water/current. I believe this lake will be ice free within the next 10 days probably for sure. There are two canoe in camp-sites on this lake which are crown land which would make a great early season over-nighter.
Offline
I always get a good chuckle out of the long range forecast. I'd say it's about 80% accurate at 24-36 hours and then drops to about 50% accurate from 36-72 hours and after that is a complete crap shoot. I used to screen shot the forecast in advance of a trip and then compare that to the forecast from three days later and the differences were substantial.
The strongest indicator to me is the satellite imagery and the relative boundary of where the open water is and where the frozen lakes are...that tells a much more accurate story of how long it will be until that border migrates north to the lakes we all have our eyes upon. Although small variation can occur with that rate based on local weather conditions, it is sort of like stopping or starting a train so those variations will be minor.
Offline
Frost line is moving up each day.
Opeongo is getting slightly darker in the center and middle of the arms. Golden Lake & Round Lake just below the east side is really dark, and will probably be ice free very soon.
It's looking good guys - can't be much longer than a couple weeks. (or maybe it can.. what do I know!)
Edit: This SAT Image is from earlier this afternoon.
Last edited by Peek (4/05/2016 5:53 pm)
Offline
I really hope my April 23rd trip will be do-able. Almost considering cancelling my days off just in case.
Offline
The best way to guarantee a late ice out is to book a trip for the Trout opener. So this is, in fact, all your fault.
Offline
I find it funny how on page one of this thread we were speculating a March ice out and now we will be lucky to see the ice out in April. Supposed to leave for a week long trip May 1st and even that might be pushing it at this point! So much for a record breaking spring.. Maybe next year? Ya right
Offline
You guys are losing faith way too quickly. Was anyone seriously thinking March? Those were pretty tongue-in-cheek call-outs from what I saw. Considering a March ice out has only ever happened once since tracking started, we can't seriously be looking for that to repeat any time real soon, climate change notwithstanding. Okay, we hit another cold spell this month--bound to happen in our crazy climate. But they're still predicting double-digit highs a week from now and show them tracking straight through to the 23rd. We may have slowed up by a few days, but don't forget the ice was in much worse shape in March this year compared with last, yet ice-out still happened by May 1 in 2015. I say no later than the 25th this year for sure!
Offline
I'm glad I have a good boss and I can adjust as necessary, still its hard to wait after a long winter.
Offline
If the current forecast remains true, the ice may blow out by the end of the week! I'm thinking April 25 may be on!
Thread StarterOffline
I too have a trip planned for early spring. Agree that the forcast looks promising, but no way this week. Ice was being made, not melted, the last several days. My best guess at this point is Monday the 25th, but again, thats only a guess.
Every year its the same thing, we dream of paddling our favourite lake, wetting a line and enjoying a campfire with old friends. Happily imagining the trout to be caught with that new lure or fly, and the new gear to be tested out. Only to panic and worry about ice out, no matter how well we plan or take into account the forecasted weather...this too has become a part of the ritual.
Moonman.
Offline
Ontario Parks just issued a notice that backcountry will not be opened until April 28th... Subject to change... hopefully earlier rather than later...
M
Offline
Marko_Mrko wrote:
Ontario Parks just issued a notice that backcountry will not be opened until April 28th... Subject to change... hopefully earlier rather than later...
M
Rather annoying that they've stopped issuing interior permits for the hiking trails as well as canoe routes. With the weather forecast for this weekend it would have been an excellent opportunity to hike the Highland Trail.
Offline
Ontario Parks just issued a notice that backcountry will not be opened until April 28th... Subject to change... hopefully earlier rather than later...
MRather annoying that they've stopped issuing interior permits for the hiking trails as well as canoe routes. With the weather forecast for this weekend it would have been an excellent opportunity to hike the Highland Trail.
4th year in a row.
Geez. Does anyone remember when it wasn't such a nanny state and you could just go camping? Before 2013, I don't ever recall them 'Closing the Backcountry' at ice out time. Correct me if I am wrong, but I simply do not recall this happening - except the last 4 openers.
Offline
Coincides nicely with when David Coulas took over as Superintendent.
Offline
I didn't want to say it.. but. yep.
I miss Winters.
Offline
You can still hold you reservation and roll the dice, last year I kept mine for the first week of may even though they wouldn't issue new permits prior to the 8th. As it turned out I got in on the Monday and had Lake Lavieille all to myself until Friday when I saw the first canoe on the lake. I'm with you guys and girls though, they should have a waiver to sign and let us in if we choose to go, waiting until every bay in the park is ice free is nonsense.
Offline
You can still hold you reservation and roll the dice
Can you? I thought when they announce backcountry closures they cancel existing reservations for the time period in question. Or maybe that was just the first year they did it?
I can sort of see a case for closing off permits at times when travel is basically impossible, I dunno, I'm kind of on the fence about it, but the weird part to me is that the end date for these blackout periods is always a friday. Like they're not just predicting the ice-out date, they're rounding it to the following weekend. Seems unfair to people wanting to start a trip on a wednesday or thursday that is expected to be ice free.
