Offline
May 22nd? There has NEVER been a recorded ice-out date that late. Latest on record was May 15 in 1972. The average is April 27 and this is an El Niño year so it would be odd not to expect earlier than that.
MatteoP wrote:
Calling for LOTS of rain tonight... Followed by a couple weeks of pretty damn cold nights...
What does this all mean...............
I remember from a similar discussion on this forum in a previous year that rain doesn't have as much impact on ice as you would think. Well, not direct impact anyway. What rain can do is get rid of the snow on top of the ice, to allow for more sunlight penetration, which is what actually melts the ice (by warming the water underneath it). That does of course require that the rain is followed by above-0 temperatures, so that the sun can melt more ice than is being made. Besides sun, another big factor that hastens ice melt when temperatures are well above 0 is wind, since wind cycles the warm air over the ice rather than allowing the ice to cool the air that's right on it.
Sorry did I say May...meant April. Oops.
Offline
I also have the weekend of April 22nd booked off.. either way I will be canoeing/fishing.. dunno if it will be in Algonquin though. ;-)
Offline
Well, the El Nino was apparently declared over around the end of February and the current seasonal or below seasonal temps would seem to be consistent with that. I've pretty much given up trying to guess when the ice will go out this year. I expect that April 22nd will be good but anything is possible.
Offline
I'm going in on the 22nd too.. I think she will be open.. likely not by a whole bunch prior to that though.
Short trip for me.. just into Big Bob for a couple of days..Gotta get in though.. Cabin fever..
Where is everyone else headed?
Last edited by ShawnD (4/01/2016 3:46 pm)
Offline
I'm going in on the 22nd too.. I think she will be open.. likely not by a whole bunch prior to that though.
Short trip for me.. just into Big Bob for a couple of days..Gotta get in though.. Cabin fever..
Where is everyone else headed?
I was also hoping to head in on the 22nd. Up the Tim River to Devine Lake. Let's hope the ice is gone by then!
Offline
I'm heading into head lake on the 22nd
Offline
I'm heading into Lavieille for 6 nights and Dickson for another 2, heading in on Friday 21st (I hope). Really though I think if we get warmer weather on the week leading upto the opener should be fine.
Offline
Anybody have an update after the rain for the past few days?
Thread StarterOffline
They are calling for -18 C in North Bay tonight! Not great for melting ice 
I am going to take a drive tomorrow to Kiosk or maybe Samuel De Champlain to check things out.
Offline
Long Range on Weather Network shows +20 degree temps from the 15th/16th and warm going forward, doesn't take long once the night time temps get into positive territory with warm sunny days. Could even start to get warm before that.
Offline
I've updated my "First Days of Spring" Ice Out report for 2016 with some photos and videos from the past few days, including
• aerial video of the Oxtongue River running higher than we've seen it before
• photos from Lake Opeongo, Lake of Two Rivers, Mew Lake, Smoke Lake, Canoe Lake and Tea Lake
• a little road trip exploring Rain Lake Road on the West Side of Algonquin Park
/
Offline
Looks like the Park has started posting ice out conditions and satellite images. Quite the contrast from this time last year.
Offline
So we are well ahead of last year it looks like. I'm still hopefully of a April 22nd Canoe trip. :-)
Offline
Did I say April 1? My mistake, I meant May 1
Thread StarterOffline
Starting this Sunday we will see some decent ice-melting weather.. looks decent right up until April 19. Once it starts getting warmer with the sun with any luck it wont take long. Remember the ice is currently only a touch over half as thick as this time last year so its still looking hopeful.
Offline
Starting this Sunday we will see some decent ice-melting weather.. looks decent right up until April 19. Once it starts getting warmer with the sun with any luck it wont take long. Remember the ice is currently only a touch over half as thick as this time last year so its still looking hopeful.
