Sorry did I say May...meant April. Oops.

Well, the El Nino was apparently declared over around the end of February and the current seasonal or below seasonal temps would seem to be consistent with that. I've pretty much given up trying to guess when the ice will go out this year. I expect that April 22nd will be good but anything is possible. 

ShawnD wrote:

I'm going in on the 22nd too.. I think she will be open.. likely not by a whole bunch prior to that though.

Short trip for me.. just into Big Bob for a couple of days..Gotta get in though.. Cabin fever..

Where is everyone else headed?  

I was also hoping to head in on the 22nd. Up the Tim River to Devine Lake. Let's hope the ice is gone by then!

I'm heading into Lavieille for 6 nights and Dickson for another 2, heading in on Friday 21st (I hope). Really though I think if we get warmer weather on the week leading upto the opener should be fine.

They are calling for -18 C in North Bay tonight! Not great for melting ice
I am going to take a drive tomorrow to Kiosk or maybe Samuel De Champlain to check things out.

I've updated my "First Days of Spring" Ice Out report for 2016 with some photos and videos from the past few days, including
     • aerial video of the Oxtongue River running higher than we've seen it before
     • photos from Lake Opeongo, Lake of Two Rivers, Mew Lake, Smoke Lake, Canoe Lake and Tea Lake
     • a little road trip exploring Rain Lake Road on the West Side of Algonquin Park

http://algonquinoutfitters.com/blog/agonquin-outfitters/first-days-of-spring-2016/

Did I say April 1?  My mistake, I meant May 1

token wrote:

Starting this Sunday we will see some decent ice-melting weather.. looks decent right up until April 19. Once it starts getting warmer with the sun with any luck it wont take long. Remember the ice is currently only a touch over half as thick as this time last year so its still looking hopeful.

I always get a good chuckle out of the long range forecast.  I'd say it's about 80% accurate at 24-36 hours and then drops to about 50% accurate from 36-72 hours and after that is a complete crap shoot.  I used to screen shot the forecast in advance of a trip and then compare that to the forecast from three days later and the differences were substantial.

The strongest indicator to me is the satellite imagery and the relative boundary of where the open water is and where the frozen lakes are...that tells a much more accurate story of how long it will be until that border migrates north to the lakes we all have our eyes upon.  Although small variation can occur with that rate based on local weather conditions, it is sort of like stopping or starting a train so those variations will be minor.