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My limited experience with ice-out trips is that there is about a two week window between ice-out and bug-in. So......is bug-in tied more closely to ice-out or is bug-in tied more closely to the typical mid-May temperatures?
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So I think the bugs are going to react to the weather conditions not a calendar. Hypothetically if we are a month ahead here. Say April 1 ice out instead of May 1. Black flies should arrive around mid April or so and stick around the typical 4-5 weeks. Which means I guess June could actually be a great month to be out there this year if my logic is correct. Usually the month I avoid.
My spring trip is booked for May 13-20 which could be really bad for black flies now depending on the actual ice out.
So in a nutshell..Personally I’m waiting for ice out and will likely adjust my early trips accordingly.
Last edited by ShawnD (3/08/2024 9:46 am)
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I don't see bugs being out until their normal time - mid to end of May. I find ice out doesn't determine when bugs show up. Ultimately we are not going to have sustained temps at night above freezing at night until may and that's more determines when bugs show up.
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OTCanadienne wrote:
Ultimately we are not going to have sustained temps at night above freezing until may and that's more determines when bugs show up.
Well that is the key question as it impacts water temps but to me if temps keep going the way they are and ice is really as early as we think, April should be full of night temps above 0 and bugs should be early. I’m just guessing though.
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I don't see bugs being out until their normal time - mid to end of May. I find ice out doesn't determine when bugs show up. Ultimately we are not going to have sustained temps at night above freezing at night until may and that's more determines when bugs show up.
"Ultimately"? If one thing is for sure this spring, nothing is for sure. Black flies don't have a calendar pinned above whatever fast moving river/stream they hatch from. The hatch is directly dependent on air/water temperature regardless of when that arrives and is sustained - March April May, it doesn't matter to them. No different than predicting the rut during the fall. They don't have calendars either, unfortunately.
As much as I'd prefer and hope for an early spring, I also hope the nights are sub-zero until at least first week of May or longer. I would also like to see those pesky buggers come and go around their typically predictable time line. It makes planning fishing (and golf) easier, eh!
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I'm suffering from cabin fever, had the day off, decided to get up early, take a chance & drive up to QEII Wildlands for a day trip/paddle. Unfortunately not yet ice free, though getting close. Lakes just south of QEII were ice free from what I could tell from the road. Given ice out ruling is for Opeongo, approx 100km north of QEII, higher elevation & 2wk forecast not that warm, my guess is ice-out is probably at least 2 weeks out, unless weather forecast changes.
Unfortunately 
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I don't see bugs being out until their normal time - mid to end of May. I find ice out doesn't determine when bugs show up. Ultimately we are not going to have sustained temps at night above freezing at night until may and that's more determines when bugs show up.
"Ultimately"? If one thing is for sure this spring, nothing is for sure. Black flies don't have a calendar pinned above whatever fast moving river/stream they hatch from. The hatch is directly dependent on air/water temperature regardless of when that arrives and is sustained - March April May, it doesn't matter to them. No different than predicting the rut during the fall. They don't have calendars either, unfortunately.
As much as I'd prefer and hope for an early spring, I also hope the nights are sub-zero until at least first week of May or longer. I would also like to see those pesky buggers come and go around their typically predictable time line. It makes planning fishing (and golf) easier, eh!
I guess what I was saying is that I doubt we will see sustained warm temperatures enough for blackflys until the usual time in May.
Moose actually do have a calendar for the rut! The rut is dictated by photoperiod as opposed to temperatures.
Enjoy your 2024 paddling season!
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FWIW, AO staff drilled some test holes yesterday on Canoe and Opeongo. Measured solid ice thickness of 11" and 12" respectively. Less than most years but still a good amount of coverage. Cold spell coming up with overnight temps in the negative double digits next week. Could be making more ice by then!
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FWIW, AO staff drilled some test holes yesterday on Canoe and Opeongo. Measured solid ice thickness of 11" and 12" respectively. Less than most years but still a good amount of coverage. Cold spell coming up with overnight temps in the negative double digits next week. Could be making more ice by then!
Nope. I refuse to acknowledge this.
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FWIW, AO staff drilled some test holes yesterday on Canoe and Opeongo. Measured solid ice thickness of 11" and 12" respectively. Less than most years but still a good amount of coverage. Cold spell coming up with overnight temps in the negative double digits next week. Could be making more ice by then!
Thanks for the update. Hard to believe given how warm it has been in southern Ontario, but it goes to show how different the climate is in the Park at those higher elevations.
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Booked a quick one night trip May 4-5. Can't wait. Happy it will take a bit longer than expected, I don't want to get too destroyed by black flies May long weekend.
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Finally got a decent view of APP from the EOSDIS site and surrounding area, and my heart sank. Lakes and rivers that were previously open a only a handful days ago have now frozen over again. C'mon! What kind of nasty game is that? Mother nature sure is moody this spring, like an old woman with a paper arse. But on the bright side, she's smiling next week and giving us plus temps all week, and some much needed rain to get them steelies running! 
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I wasn't expecting the cold spell to end until Tuesday but today's 3:30pm Environment Canada forecast for Ottawa has us back to seasonal temperatures starting Saturday. Ditto for Algonquin Park and they are even calling for +12 and sunny on Monday!
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Bill Swift drilled a hole in the the ice yesterday on the bay in front of AO in Oxtongue Lake and reported 10" thickness. That's up from the 8" he reported earlier in the winter!
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Bill Swift drilled a hole in the the ice yesterday on the bay in front of AO in Oxtongue Lake and reported 10" thickness. That's up from the 8" he reported earlier in the winter!
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26 April 2024 , just in time for Trout opener :-)
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My guess is the ice will be out on Ope in 4 days and the park opens on the 19th.
