Fixed the link Had a period at the end by mistake that was throwing it off.

I know there has been above normal snow this winter, but I tracked the weather and ice out very closely last winter and comparatively temperatures this season are higher. Last winter we had a record cold April, and "they" (The meteorologists at Environment Canada and the Weather Network) are predicting a typical Spring this year. 

I know this is highly anecdotal, but the 14 day forecasts last year around this time for Whitney were way below seasonal. Currently, with the odd brief exception, they are at or above seasonal with plenty of sunshine. And to be frank, the weather in January/February is less relevant and less probative of ice out, than the crucial first 3 weeks of April. 

With all that said, we should (I hope) have an earlier ice out this year, hopefully for my own selfish trip planning reasons, earlier than May 6th! 

Also for any other weather nerds out there please keep your eye on the satellite imagery here: https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/modis.php?region=g&page=1 

Fingers crossed for the melt! 

 

Last edited by hartski (3/21/2019 3:38 pm)

IMO this comment by hartski is key

“ the  weather in January/February is less relevant and less probative of ice out, than the crucial first 3 weeks of April.”

hartski wrote:

"they" (The meteorologists at Environment Canada and the Weather Network) are predicting a typical Spring this year.
 

I don't put any faith in long-term forecasts and it says something that Environment Canada only puts up a 7 day forecast. Anything beyond that is little better than guessing. 

You can have all the typical spring weather you want, but typical spring weather is going to take a hell of a long time to melt what we've got on the ground up here.

I've never booked an ice-out trip through the western access points for just that reason - I'm always paranoid that the park will be open, but those logging roads won't be due to washouts. 

My Spring trip is through Opeongo, so I won't have that particular problem anyway!

martin2007 wrote:

Thinking about and discussing ice-out dates is just plain fun. But my long-deceased wise old grandma would have cautioned: "A watched pot never boils!" 

LOL -- truer words were never spoken! This reminds me how a few years ago, some time after the webcam was installed at the Visitor Centre, the FOAP posted a link on its site: "Watch the spring thaw LIVE!" After I got done rolling around on the floor with my sides aching from laughter, I recall sending the link to friends with a caption something like: "Just when the paint-drying watchers society thought it had its hands full with the grass growing watchers, along comes this whole new trend to steal its membership!" . . . uhm . . . And then I clicked on the link . . . . 

It would have been interesting had you noticed a correlation between the Sabres being eliminated from playoff contention and ice out.  We'd have been canoeing in February the past few years.  This year maybe it would have been Mid-March. 

Uppa wrote:

I know it's still March, but it's a little disheartening that, as I write this, it's -20 in APP. I no longer have the luxury of heading in for my Spring opener trip whenever I feel like it. With a wife, a dog and a 3-year-old, my trip has to get locked down well in advance. So while I had originally booked for May 4th, I just pushed the starting date back to May 13th. It's way too early to have any sense of when ice-out is going to happen, but I'm not feeling confident enough in May 4th to take the gamble. 

I too have a trip booked for the 4th. I stubbornly refuse to move it! The last two years I've had to re-arrange my trip for opening weekend, first going up to the Eastern Pines trail (never realized how long Highway 60 is!) and then last year ended up going to Frontenac instead, which I really enjoyed. C'mon weather Gods, let us enjoy the park after all the gloom that winter brings!