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3/19/2019 10:36 am  #18


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

Fixed the link Had a period at the end by mistake that was throwing it off.

 

3/19/2019 1:02 pm  #19


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

I saw that graph yesterday Gord, and it has become my saving grace!!! late April(2017) followed by mid May (2018) opening, the graph says we should be swinging back at least to the first days of May, if not earlier in April... I know it seems IMPOSSIBLE with the deep snow and ice right now, but we must believe!!! I need to get in an early spring trip before leaving for summer work on May 10

Last edited by CampFever (3/19/2019 1:03 pm)

 

3/21/2019 3:36 pm  #20


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

I know there has been above normal snow this winter, but I tracked the weather and ice out very closely last winter and comparatively temperatures this season are higher. Last winter we had a record cold April, and "they" (The meteorologists at Environment Canada and the Weather Network) are predicting a typical Spring this year. 

I know this is highly anecdotal, but the 14 day forecasts last year around this time for Whitney were way below seasonal. Currently, with the odd brief exception, they are at or above seasonal with plenty of sunshine. And to be frank, the weather in January/February is less relevant and less probative of ice out, than the crucial first 3 weeks of April. 

With all that said, we should (I hope) have an earlier ice out this year, hopefully for my own selfish trip planning reasons, earlier than May 6th! 

Also for any other weather nerds out there please keep your eye on the satellite imagery here: https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/modis.php?region=g&page=1 

Fingers crossed for the melt! 

 

Last edited by hartski (3/21/2019 3:38 pm)

 

3/21/2019 5:00 pm  #21


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

I like the cut of your jib hartski. 

 

 

3/21/2019 6:51 pm  #22


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

IMO this comment by hartski is key

“ the  weather in January/February is less relevant and less probative of ice out, than the crucial first 3 weeks of April.”


We do not go to the green woods and crystal waters to rough it, we go to smooth it.
 - George Washington Sears
 

3/21/2019 7:34 pm  #23


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

I spent the weekend around the park and visited some of the open outfitters and picked up my new canoe. While out and about listening to many opinions I came to my own and think May 4th. I am planning my nine day trip across APP to start the second week of May if I can get the permits in time.  

 

3/22/2019 12:39 pm  #24


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

hartski wrote:

"they" (The meteorologists at Environment Canada and the Weather Network) are predicting a typical Spring this year.
 

I don't put any faith in long-term forecasts and it says something that Environment Canada only puts up a 7 day forecast. Anything beyond that is little better than guessing. 

 

3/22/2019 12:50 pm  #25


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

I'm with solos on this one...I used to watch the 14 day forecast and anything beyond 3-4 days out typically changed DRAMATICALLY as we drew closer to those dates.  Quit looking after that until we were just a few days out from departure.

 

3/22/2019 7:20 pm  #26


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

You can have all the typical spring weather you want, but typical spring weather is going to take a hell of a long time to melt what we've got on the ground up here.

 

3/23/2019 5:03 am  #27


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

And don't forget what happens when too much snow melts too quickly! Seems every time we go through this the flooding washes out key access roads which further delays opening. Sorry to be a pessimist but last year I got all jazzed up, drinking the Cool-Aid on this early ice-out bandwagon only to be slapped in the face and thoroughly put in my place by Mother Nature! Not this year! 

 

3/23/2019 5:31 am  #28


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

I've never booked an ice-out trip through the western access points for just that reason - I'm always paranoid that the park will be open, but those logging roads won't be due to washouts. 

My Spring trip is through Opeongo, so I won't have that particular problem anyway!

 

3/23/2019 9:58 am  #29


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

Thinking about and discussing ice-out dates is just plain fun. But my long-deceased wise old grandma would have cautioned: "A watched pot never boils!" 

 

3/23/2019 5:21 pm  #30


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

martin2007 wrote:

Thinking about and discussing ice-out dates is just plain fun. But my long-deceased wise old grandma would have cautioned: "A watched pot never boils!" 

LOL -- truer words were never spoken! This reminds me how a few years ago, some time after the webcam was installed at the Visitor Centre, the FOAP posted a link on its site: "Watch the spring thaw LIVE!" After I got done rolling around on the floor with my sides aching from laughter, I recall sending the link to friends with a caption something like: "Just when the paint-drying watchers society thought it had its hands full with the grass growing watchers, along comes this whole new trend to steal its membership!" . . . uhm . . . And then I clicked on the link . . .

 

3/24/2019 6:04 am  #31


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

Over the years, Ive noticed that there is a strong correlation between ice out and the elimination of the Leafs from Stanley Cup contention.  So this year, I think we're looking at a later than normal ice-out.  But nothing ridiculous like beyond the long weekend or into June.

 

3/24/2019 3:15 pm  #32


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

It would have been interesting had you noticed a correlation between the Sabres being eliminated from playoff contention and ice out.  We'd have been canoeing in February the past few years.  This year maybe it would have been Mid-March. 

 

3/26/2019 6:50 am  #33


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

I know it's still March, but it's a little disheartening that, as I write this, it's -20 in APP. I no longer have the luxury of heading in for my Spring opener trip whenever I feel like it. With a wife, a dog and a 3-year-old, my trip has to get locked down well in advance. So while I had originally booked for May 4th, I just pushed the starting date back to May 13th. It's way too early to have any sense of when ice-out is going to happen, but I'm not feeling confident enough in May 4th to take the gamble. 

 

3/26/2019 7:04 am  #34


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

Uppa wrote:

I know it's still March, but it's a little disheartening that, as I write this, it's -20 in APP. I no longer have the luxury of heading in for my Spring opener trip whenever I feel like it. With a wife, a dog and a 3-year-old, my trip has to get locked down well in advance. So while I had originally booked for May 4th, I just pushed the starting date back to May 13th. It's way too early to have any sense of when ice-out is going to happen, but I'm not feeling confident enough in May 4th to take the gamble. 

I too have a trip booked for the 4th. I stubbornly refuse to move it! The last two years I've had to re-arrange my trip for opening weekend, first going up to the Eastern Pines trail (never realized how long Highway 60 is!) and then last year ended up going to Frontenac instead, which I really enjoyed. C'mon weather Gods, let us enjoy the park after all the gloom that winter brings!

 

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