sdmoulto wrote:

There is a significant warming in temperatures coming next week with rainfall. As someone who has worked multiple seasons throughout the park, I can tell you it all happens very quickly. If the park management didn't think there was a realistic chance the ice would be out May 4th, 2018 they would not have announced that date. All it takes is 5-7 days of the right weather conditions to send lake ice to its demise. I wouldn't be entirely negative and push back your plans just yet everyone.

Sean

No argument that ice-out can happen quickly, but the park management doesn't have a crystal ball the rest of us don't have access to. I see no sign of 'significant warming in temperatures' on any weather site I've seen, unless you consider a 7 degree high (with still freezing overnights) "significant". 

Don't misunderstand me, I hope like hell you're right and May 4th is open water. But I don't think I'd put money on that right now. 
 

Uppa wrote:

sdmoulto wrote:

There is a significant warming in temperatures coming next week with rainfall. As someone who has worked multiple seasons throughout the park, I can tell you it all happens very quickly. If the park management didn't think there was a realistic chance the ice would be out May 4th, 2018 they would not have announced that date. All it takes is 5-7 days of the right weather conditions to send lake ice to its demise. I wouldn't be entirely negative and push back your plans just yet everyone.

Sean

No argument that ice-out can happen quickly, but the park management doesn't have a crystal ball the rest of us don't have access to. I see no sign of 'significant warming in temperatures' on any weather site I've seen, unless you consider a 7 degree high (with still freezing overnights) "significant". 

Don't misunderstand me, I hope like hell you're right and May 4th is open water. But I don't think I'd put money on that right now. 
 

There you have it! The Weather Network and any other weather service all show significant increases in temperatures beginning next week, so not sure what weather service you are looking into!

Also, the park management team has access to helicopters, aircraft, snowmobiles, atvs and many forms of gps software to make decisions such as this!

Sean

Uppa wrote:

Marginally above freezing daytime highs and around freezing overnight temperatures do not result in a very quick melt. If you honestly think park management spent time and money overflying the park before pushing back their opening date I'm not sure what I can say. It was clear to them (and to everyone) that the lakes wouldn't be ice-free in time for the trout opener, so they picked the following Friday as their current (and completely arbitrary) new "opening date". The stars may align and that date turns out to be the right one, but it won't be because they had access to information the rest of us don't. 

What ever you say man! Lol

sdmoulto wrote:

There you have it! The Weather Network and any other weather service all show significant increases in temperatures beginning next week, so not sure what weather service you are looking into!

Sean

Yep, those temperatures are warmer than we've had the last few weeks. 

Nope they are not quick ice melting temps. 

Typical weather leading up to ice out includes multiple days in a row with highs in the 15-20C range. That forecast doesn't show anything over 10C. 

The park does make use of aerial surveys when ice out is *close*. It isn't close now so no they aren't wasting money on flights. As Uppa said, the push out of a week from the season opening for trout is a pretty routine 'week at a time' move. 

I’m beginning to think my April 14 ice out prediction might be wrong.

Uppa wrote:

AlgonquinLakes wrote:

I’m beginning to think my April 14 ice out prediction might be wrong.

We shall see folks, there is 2 hours and 6 minutes left between now and the end of April 14th and I believe a lot can change by then. Until that time, cheers everyone!

how old are you? lol
 

This cranky old man is trying to roll with the punches .. ice, bugs, fire bans, arthritis, foreign forum trolls!

Yes, lets take it easy!

kenny wrote:

I think any Ice Out Prediction with the Word April in is looks like it will be wrong      

AlgonquinLakes wrote:

I’m beginning to think my April 14 ice out prediction might be wrong.

 

Sigh. I think you’re right. I should have gone with May 14. Or maybe June.