Algonquin Adventures / 2018 Ice Out Predictions?

**Posted by Was Hardcore** 5/01/2018 8:22 am

The black fly is temp sensitive when the stream and river temps hit 55 degrees the black flies will hatch so delayed a little but it won't take long for those temps to climb if we stay above 20.

**Posted by spicol** 5/01/2018 8:37 am

I've heard that 55 degrees number before but in my experience, it's certainly much lower than that. This article suggests 40-50 degrees.

https://www.muskokaregion.com/opinion-story/3580439-everything-you-didn-t-want-to-know-about-black-flies/

**Posted by sdmoulto** 5/01/2018 5:37 pm

I am sooo confused as to when this ice out is going to happen lol. When I did a tour of the park Sunday the ice and snow was so depressing I didn't even want to take pictures. Now that they have delayed till the 11th, the weather is 24 degrees and sunny in Mattawa, with warm day and night temps with rain and wind. Now with this weather It could even possibly be gone by the 7-9th of May? I have no idea when this ice out is gunna happen anymore lol.

**Posted by Was Hardcore** 5/01/2018 9:17 pm

spicol wrote:
I've heard that 55 degrees number before but in my experience, it's certainly much lower than that. This article suggests 40-50 degrees.

https://www.muskokaregion.com/opinion-story/3580439-everything-you-didn-t-want-to-know-about-black-flies/

I think 55 is peak and they will be biting then. Ive seen them out earlier but not biting.

**Posted by Trillium16** 5/02/2018 4:21 am

sdmoulto wrote:
I am sooo confused as to when this ice out is going to happen lol. When I did a tour of the park Sunday the ice and snow was so depressing I didn't even want to take pictures. Now that they have delayed till the 11th, the weather is 24 degrees and sunny in Mattawa, with warm day and night temps with rain and wind. Now with this weather It could even possibly be gone by the 7-9th of May? I have no idea when this ice out is gunna happen anymore lol.

Indeed, but the discussion of when ice-out will occur is separate from the question of when backcountry permits will be issued. If you have plans for backcountry travel immediately after ice-out, I think it is safe to book to start on the 11th. I sincerely doubt the Park will open to backcountry camping before that. I recall reading a comment on this forum--maybe last year--that Ontario Parks (or Algonquin Park, whoever decides these things) has historically shown a preference for opening (i.e., starting to issue backcountry permits) on a Friday. I believe that holds true for whatever reason. With these double-digit high temps and no below-freezing lows, I can't imagine it will go any longer than next Friday.

I agree with others, the bigger question now is whether we're going to have to deal with black flies immediately after ice-out. I was hoping to tarp camp on my 9-day solo trip, but now I'm having to question the wisdom of it.

**Posted by ATVenture** 5/02/2018 6:14 am

K-Mog yesterday.

**Posted by vanslyke** 5/02/2018 8:22 am

ATVenture wrote:
K-Mog yesterday.

What lake is Kmog?

**Posted by AlgonquinLakes** 5/02/2018 8:26 am

I’d guess Kawayamog, access point 1

**Posted by swedish pimple** 5/02/2018 9:00 am

yes,, you are correct access #1

**Posted by vanslyke** 5/02/2018 9:01 am

Thanks guys.
Looks like its melting up quick.

**Posted by andrewr0520** 5/02/2018 9:23 am

Does anybody have the website where we can look at the satellite imaging of the area?

http://www.youtube.com/user/kayakcamper · **Posted by Uppa** 5/02/2018 9:24 am

andrewr0520 wrote:
Does anybody have the website where we can look at the satellite imaging of the area?

https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/modis.php?region=g&page=1

**Posted by andrewr0520** 5/02/2018 9:51 am

Uppa wrote:
andrewr0520 wrote:
Does anybody have the website where we can look at the satellite imaging of the area?
https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/modis.php?region=g&page=1

Thank you!!!

**Posted by ATVenture** 5/02/2018 9:56 am

Getting hit hard in North Bay with rain right now, looks like Trout Lake might shed its ice in the next couple of days.

**Posted by andrewr0520** 5/02/2018 10:22 am

I just called the park, and lovely Debbie told me that the May 11 date could change depending on the conditions, but it's unlikely. Take that for what it's worth.

http://www.youtube.com/user/kayakcamper · **Posted by Uppa** 5/02/2018 10:33 am

Oh well if Debbie says we're good to go, then pack your bags boys!

I'm not actually terribly concerned about the May 11th date at this point. The forecast is filled with ice-melting conditions.

**Posted by andrewr0520** 5/02/2018 10:34 am

Uppa wrote:
Oh well if Debbie says we're good to go, then pack your bags boys!

I'm not actually terribly concerned about the May 11th date at this point. The forecast is filled with ice-melting conditions.

Haha well I have a trip booked for Monday-Thursday next week; I'm gonna wait it out till this weekend to see if there's any budge on the date, and if not, looks like Frontenac or QEW for me.