Algonquin Adventures / 2018 Ice Out Predictions?

**Posted by Moonman** 4/30/2018 1:35 pm

Yes, its up on the website now. I just got off the phone with the reservation service though and they still don't know the opening date has been extended till May 11, so I have to call back to make the change without penalty.

Moonman,

**Posted by kenny** 4/30/2018 1:38 pm

on Twitter as well. think this has to be one of the latest openings ever.

http://www.youtube.com/user/kayakcamper · **Posted by Uppa** 4/30/2018 1:44 pm

23rd versus the 30th, and even though most of that week was not really very warm there's substantial differences. The 30th versus the 7th will be way, way more significant. Opeongo is boxed just for a bit of reference.

Last edited by Uppa (4/30/2018 1:45 pm)

**Posted by spicol** 4/30/2018 3:15 pm

Hmm, QEII it is, then.

**Posted by vanslyke** 4/30/2018 5:44 pm

I think it'll be good to go for the 11th as planned.
It is going to be really warm over the next 10 days with sun and some rain in there. Now that shores are breaking up and the rivers and creeks in the park are flowing it shouldn't take too long.

Kempenfelt bay of lake simcoe is roughly the size of opeongo. It was fully locked a week ago, now it is fully open.

Last edited by vanslyke (4/30/2018 5:45 pm)

**Posted by AlgonquinGuy** 4/30/2018 10:12 pm

sdmoulto wrote:
Top- Lake Opeongo April 24, 2018
Bottom - Lake of Two Rivers - April 24, 2018

Lake of Two Rivers could be opening up any day now and quickly, while Opeongo looks like it could be quite different by the weekend. Its going to be close folks!

Sean

Nope. Not different. Much of the same.

**Posted by trippythings** 4/30/2018 11:18 pm

trippythings wrote:
If ice out is later than average, does that usually mean black flies will start hatching/biting later than average as well? Or are the two not directly related in that sense.

I'm considering a trip around May 16-20 but not sure if that's too late if I'm trying to avoid the bugs

Quoting myself from earlier in the thread, but I want to ask again... I was initially planning May 16 - 20 but the route I want to do is no longer available so I would have to push it back to May 23 - 25. With the new ice out forecast, do you guys think I'll be able to beat the bugs on those dates, or will it be a risky bet?

http://www.youtube.com/user/kayakcamper · **Posted by Uppa** 5/01/2018 5:20 am

The black flies might be out this year before the park is even open for camping...

(No, I'm not joking).

**Posted by ATVenture** 5/01/2018 5:32 am

Yesterday at Kiosk I seen one very small black fly buzzing around me for a bit, countless butterflies, many 'house flies', LOTS of chickadees and Gray Jay's, and 3 very confused loons. The loons were swimming in the small bit of open water that runs under the land bridge.
The shore is open all around the lake now and access to the ice is no longer possible.
I give it 7 days from today.

Last edited by ATVenture (5/01/2018 5:32 am)

**Posted by andrewr0520** 5/01/2018 6:40 am

If the lake ice recedes completely before the 11th, will they open the park ahead of that date?

**Posted by ShawnD** 5/01/2018 6:50 am

I now have 2 later May trips so very interested in the questions posed above.

Does a late/cold spring mean later bugs or fewer bugs or dare we hope both.

Scouring the internet...the best I could find was this. Posted a few days ago and it speaks to the NY area.

http://www.fox5ny.com/news/cold-spring-mosquitoes

**Posted by Was Hardcore** 5/01/2018 8:22 am

The black fly is temp sensitive when the stream and river temps hit 55 degrees the black flies will hatch so delayed a little but it won't take long for those temps to climb if we stay above 20.

**Posted by spicol** 5/01/2018 8:37 am

I've heard that 55 degrees number before but in my experience, it's certainly much lower than that. This article suggests 40-50 degrees.

https://www.muskokaregion.com/opinion-story/3580439-everything-you-didn-t-want-to-know-about-black-flies/

**Posted by sdmoulto** 5/01/2018 5:37 pm

I am sooo confused as to when this ice out is going to happen lol. When I did a tour of the park Sunday the ice and snow was so depressing I didn't even want to take pictures. Now that they have delayed till the 11th, the weather is 24 degrees and sunny in Mattawa, with warm day and night temps with rain and wind. Now with this weather It could even possibly be gone by the 7-9th of May? I have no idea when this ice out is gunna happen anymore lol.

**Posted by Was Hardcore** 5/01/2018 9:17 pm

spicol wrote:
I've heard that 55 degrees number before but in my experience, it's certainly much lower than that. This article suggests 40-50 degrees.

https://www.muskokaregion.com/opinion-story/3580439-everything-you-didn-t-want-to-know-about-black-flies/

I think 55 is peak and they will be biting then. Ive seen them out earlier but not biting.

**Posted by Trillium16** 5/02/2018 4:21 am

sdmoulto wrote:
I am sooo confused as to when this ice out is going to happen lol. When I did a tour of the park Sunday the ice and snow was so depressing I didn't even want to take pictures. Now that they have delayed till the 11th, the weather is 24 degrees and sunny in Mattawa, with warm day and night temps with rain and wind. Now with this weather It could even possibly be gone by the 7-9th of May? I have no idea when this ice out is gunna happen anymore lol.

Indeed, but the discussion of when ice-out will occur is separate from the question of when backcountry permits will be issued. If you have plans for backcountry travel immediately after ice-out, I think it is safe to book to start on the 11th. I sincerely doubt the Park will open to backcountry camping before that. I recall reading a comment on this forum--maybe last year--that Ontario Parks (or Algonquin Park, whoever decides these things) has historically shown a preference for opening (i.e., starting to issue backcountry permits) on a Friday. I believe that holds true for whatever reason. With these double-digit high temps and no below-freezing lows, I can't imagine it will go any longer than next Friday.

I agree with others, the bigger question now is whether we're going to have to deal with black flies immediately after ice-out. I was hoping to tarp camp on my 9-day solo trip, but now I'm having to question the wisdom of it.

**Posted by ATVenture** 5/02/2018 6:14 am

K-Mog yesterday.