Algonquin Adventures / 2018 Ice Out Predictions?

**Posted by nvm** 4/21/2018 7:29 pm

Nice. This aligns with my previous experience, which incidentally was a first attempt at the trip I have booked for May 4. I'm really hoping not to have another cancellation this year, but I feel like booking the same trip may have jinxed it!

**Posted by Was Hardcore** 4/22/2018 6:55 am

Some progress Noticed a big open patch on the webcam where Sunday flows into Fork Lake. Some wind and some rain should start opening some of the lakes with current areas.

**Posted by nvm** 4/22/2018 8:26 am

MODIS shows Simcoe to be about 1/2 open, and a noticeable amount of thawing compared to Friday. We should get lots of clear images this week. Comparing yesterday's image to previous years... it's hard to be optimistic for May 4 still...

**Posted by ATVenture** 4/22/2018 11:27 am

Well I was all geared up to hike in somewhere from the Kiosk access point to have lunch and a fire, I was very disappointed when I got there and couldn't even get anywhere close to the access because its completely snowed in. Even lots of natives parked their trucks/snowmobile trailers on highway 630 and snowmobiled in from there.
I am going for a retry on Tuesday.

Last edited by ATVenture (4/22/2018 11:28 am)

**Posted by Chuck Enwinde** 4/22/2018 11:17 pm

Fished a small lake just outside the park near the west gate on Saturday and found about 20" of ice. By the end of the day it was starting to get a bit mushy on top but there is still a long way to go. Back home Sunday for a round of golf and a sunburn.

**Posted by vanslyke** 4/23/2018 9:34 am

I am very happy to see the warm weather finally here and looks like its sticking around...however, I am still a bit nervous for my May 11th trip. We might just squeak in but a small part of me thinks it may be a May 18th opener for the park. So much ice still on lakes.

**Posted by Methye** 4/24/2018 6:40 pm

April 23rd

[img]https://gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov/image-download?TIME=2018-04-23T00:00:00Z&extent=-80.73152160644531,43.37759399414063,-75.83738708496094,46.85723876953126&epsg=4326&layers=MODIS_Terra_CorrectedReflectance_TrueColor,Coastlines&opacities=1,1&worldfile=false&format=image/jpeg&width=2228&height=1584[/img]

Last edited by Methye (4/24/2018 6:40 pm)

**Posted by sdmoulto** 4/24/2018 11:11 pm

Top- Lake Opeongo April 24, 2018
Bottom - Lake of Two Rivers - April 24, 2018

Lake of Two Rivers could be opening up any day now and quickly, while Opeongo looks like it could be quite different by the weekend. Its going to be close folks!

Sean

**Posted by sdmoulto** 4/24/2018 11:24 pm

Forecast remaining for this week and especially early next week are quite favorable for a rapid break up and ice out, things are gunna get interesting shortly!

**Posted by sdmoulto** 4/24/2018 11:27 pm

I am going to be in the park this coming sunday afternoon, and im pretty sure things are gunna be interesting by then, will post more pics!

Sean

**Posted by ATVenture** 4/25/2018 6:12 am

Well yesterday I was at Kiosk. I did my lunch and a fire outing with my dog. The natives were still snowmobiling across the lake and I walked out about 100 feet. There are a few very small sections where the ice is melting at shore, but for the most part its tight, tight, tight. I was going to bring my auger but I forgot.
Last year when the ice melt was at around the same stage we were ~2.5 weeks(ish) from ice-out.
Once the ice is melted a few feet out around the entire circumference of the lake we are looking at another week.
Also note Kiosk is a lower elevation than most of 60 and usually melts sooner. It was 20 degrees out there yesterday.
I am sure when trout opens on the 28th I will 100% be able to ice fish Kiosk Lake. It might be interesting getting from land onto ice, but the ice will still be WELL over 18 inches thick.

Last edited by ATVenture (4/25/2018 8:32 am)

**Posted by ATVenture** 4/25/2018 6:28 am

April 9/17 -

April 25/18
[img]https://i.imgur.com/1gyUQo7.jpg/img][/img]

Looking at my photos from last year on April 9th there were bays that were complately open on Kiosk and my dog was out swimming, yesterday I could walk out onto the ice from the same spots.

Last edited by ATVenture (4/25/2018 6:30 am)

http://www.youtube.com/user/kayakcamper · **Posted by Uppa** 4/25/2018 8:03 am

Well that's discouraging. On the other hand, I'm now seeing 20+ degree temps predicted in the next week!

Last edited by Uppa (4/25/2018 8:38 am)

**Posted by AO_GordB** 4/25/2018 8:33 am

sdmoulto wrote:
Lake of Two Rivers could be opening up any day now and quickly, while Opeongo looks like it could be quite different by the weekend. Its going to be close folks!

Sean

You are really optimistic, there is two feet of ice on that lake and it is locked up to the shore. Conditions now are what they are in early April during a "normal" ice-out year.

**Posted by ATVenture** 4/25/2018 8:33 am

Uppa wrote:
Well that's discouraging. On the other hand, I'm now see 20+ degree temps predicted in the next week!

Yesterday when i left Kiosk it was 21 degrees and overcast. On my hike back I was wearing a t-shirt and jeans and was sweating by the time I got back to the car. At first I was really enjoying the warm weather, but when I started sweating I was thinking just a few degrees cooler would be nice. Haha

http://www.youtube.com/user/kayakcamper · **Posted by Uppa** 4/25/2018 8:47 am

ATVenture wrote:
Yesterday when i left Kiosk it was 21 degrees and overcast. On my hike back I was wearing a t-shirt and jeans and was sweating by the time I got back to the car. At first I was really enjoying the warm weather, but when I started sweating I was thinking just a few degrees cooler would be nice. Haha

I never know what weather I'm going to get on an ice-out trip, but "too hot" isn't ever the problem. This year, considering how late the ice is going off, it just might be!

**Posted by AlgonquinLakes** 4/25/2018 9:08 am

What’s the latest the ice has ever gone out? This may be answered somewhere in this thread already, but I don’t want to scroll 12 pages worth of comments to find it.