Algonquin Adventures / 2018 Ice Out Predictions?

**Posted by Peek** 4/13/2018 4:58 pm

Given the photos, the forecast and the word on the ground from locals - I think even May 4th is optimistic. I wouldn't base any planning on this date, might be disappointed.

http://www.youtube.com/user/kayakcamper · **Posted by Uppa** 4/14/2018 4:44 am

Peek wrote:
Given the photos, the forecast and the word on the ground from locals - I think even May 4th is optimistic. I wouldn't base any planning on this date, might be disappointed.

They've pushed opening day to... May 4th. And it won't surprise me in the slightest if that date ends up pushing back another week.

http://www.algonquinpark.on.ca/news/ice-out.php

Delayed Facility Openings in Algonquin Park

Ontario Parks, the government organization responsible for the management of Algonquin Park, has announced that the opening of the following areas of Algonquin Park will be delayed until May 4, 2018 (subject to change) due to the late arrival of spring:

All backcountry campsites, ranger cabins, portages and backcountry access points
Achray Campground
Brent Campground
Kiosk Campground
Rock Lake Campground
Tea Lake Campground

All Algonquin Park visitors holding an affected reservation with an arrival date up to and including the night of May 3, 2018 can receive a full refund or change their reservation dates without penalty. Ontario Parks reservation service staff will be contacting affected reservation holders directly to inform them of this information and to make necessary changes to their reservations. Online changes are not recommended as visitors will incur penalties or change fees.

Last edited by Uppa (4/14/2018 5:32 am)

**Posted by DanPM** 4/14/2018 10:12 am

Haha I don't think Peek was being prophetic, he was responding to AlgonquinGuy's announcement of the May 4 opening.

**Posted by Peek** 4/14/2018 10:20 am

DanPM wrote:
Haha I don't think Peek was being prophetic, he was responding to AlgonquinGuy's announcement of the May 4 opening.

lol yup, this.

**Posted by sdmoulto** 4/14/2018 10:40 am

There is a significant warming in temperatures coming next week with rainfall. As someone who has worked multiple seasons throughout the park, I can tell you it all happens very quickly. If the park management didn't think there was a realistic chance the ice would be out May 4th, 2018 they would not have announced that date. All it takes is 5-7 days of the right weather conditions to send lake ice to its demise. I wouldn't be entirely negative and push back your plans just yet everyone.

Sean

http://www.youtube.com/user/kayakcamper · **Posted by Uppa** 4/14/2018 11:03 am

DanPM wrote:
Haha I don't think Peek was being prophetic, he was responding to AlgonquinGuy's announcement of the May 4 opening.

Well that's what happens when I don't read the previous page!

http://www.youtube.com/user/kayakcamper · **Posted by Uppa** 4/14/2018 12:20 pm

sdmoulto wrote:
There is a significant warming in temperatures coming next week with rainfall. As someone who has worked multiple seasons throughout the park, I can tell you it all happens very quickly. If the park management didn't think there was a realistic chance the ice would be out May 4th, 2018 they would not have announced that date. All it takes is 5-7 days of the right weather conditions to send lake ice to its demise. I wouldn't be entirely negative and push back your plans just yet everyone.

Sean

No argument that ice-out can happen quickly, but the park management doesn't have a crystal ball the rest of us don't have access to. I see no sign of 'significant warming in temperatures' on any weather site I've seen, unless you consider a 7 degree high (with still freezing overnights) "significant".

Don't misunderstand me, I hope like hell you're right and May 4th is open water. But I don't think I'd put money on that right now.

**Posted by sdmoulto** 4/14/2018 12:44 pm

There you have it! The Weather Network and any other weather service all show significant increases in temperatures beginning next week, so not sure what weather service you are looking into!

Also, the park management team has access to helicopters, aircraft, snowmobiles, atvs and many forms of gps software to make decisions such as this!

Sean

**Posted by sdmoulto** 4/14/2018 12:46 pm

Uppa wrote:
sdmoulto wrote:
There is a significant warming in temperatures coming next week with rainfall. As someone who has worked multiple seasons throughout the park, I can tell you it all happens very quickly. If the park management didn't think there was a realistic chance the ice would be out May 4th, 2018 they would not have announced that date. All it takes is 5-7 days of the right weather conditions to send lake ice to its demise. I wouldn't be entirely negative and push back your plans just yet everyone.

Sean
No argument that ice-out can happen quickly, but the park management doesn't have a crystal ball the rest of us don't have access to. I see no sign of 'significant warming in temperatures' on any weather site I've seen, unless you consider a 7 degree high (with still freezing overnights) "significant".

Don't misunderstand me, I hope like hell you're right and May 4th is open water. But I don't think I'd put money on that right now.

There you have it! The Weather Network and any other weather service all show significant increases in temperatures beginning next week, so not sure what weather service you are looking into!

Also, the park management team has access to helicopters, aircraft, snowmobiles, atvs and many forms of gps software to make decisions such as this!

Sean

http://www.youtube.com/user/kayakcamper · **Posted by Uppa** 4/14/2018 1:17 pm

Marginally above freezing daytime highs and around freezing overnight temperatures do not result in a very quick melt. If you honestly think park management spent time and money overflying the park before pushing back their opening date I'm not sure what I can say. It was clear to them (and to everyone) that the lakes wouldn't be ice-free in time for the trout opener, so they picked the following Friday as their current (and completely arbitrary) new "opening date". The stars may align and that date turns out to be the right one, but it won't be because they had access to information the rest of us don't.

**Posted by sdmoulto** 4/14/2018 1:35 pm

Uppa wrote:
Marginally above freezing daytime highs and around freezing overnight temperatures do not result in a very quick melt. If you honestly think park management spent time and money overflying the park before pushing back their opening date I'm not sure what I can say. It was clear to them (and to everyone) that the lakes wouldn't be ice-free in time for the trout opener, so they picked the following Friday as their current (and completely arbitrary) new "opening date". The stars may align and that date turns out to be the right one, but it won't be because they had access to information the rest of us don't.

What ever you say man! Lol

**Posted by swedish pimple** 4/14/2018 1:42 pm

day time temps still below average and night time temps are just little above average,,,
now retired, i can cherry pick my days,, i am getting a chuckle from the working class people that have to book time off.

**Posted by MartinG** 4/14/2018 2:32 pm

2014 was the latest ice out this century. Opeongo went out on May 6th, 2014. For reference the temperature at the east gate on this day in 2014 was 18 degrees. Snow pack was 5cm. Compare that to today, -6c and snowing and 28 cm snow on the ground. Not to mention a measured ice depth of 25in on Source lake. Measured before the -10 to -20c temps last week. Then there is the 14 day forecast. Single digit highs for the next two weeks and lows around freezing. These aren't the kinds of conditions that send lake ice to a quick demise.

While anything is possible and it is a fools game to predict the weather (let alone ice out!) I think May 11th is a hopeful day to start an interior trip.

Last edited by MartinG (4/19/2018 10:56 am)

**Posted by RobW** 4/14/2018 2:52 pm

sdmoulto wrote:
There you have it! The Weather Network and any other weather service all show significant increases in temperatures beginning next week, so not sure what weather service you are looking into!

Sean

Yep, those temperatures are warmer than we've had the last few weeks.

Nope they are not quick ice melting temps.

Typical weather leading up to ice out includes multiple days in a row with highs in the 15-20C range. That forecast doesn't show anything over 10C.

The park does make use of aerial surveys when ice out is *close*. It isn't close now so no they aren't wasting money on flights. As Uppa said, the push out of a week from the season opening for trout is a pretty routine 'week at a time' move.

**Posted by sdmoulto** 4/14/2018 3:11 pm

We shall see folks, there is 3 weeks between now and the proposed backcountry opening and I believe a lot can change by then. Until that time, cheers everyone!

Sean

**Posted by AlgonquinLakes** 4/14/2018 4:52 pm

I’m beginning to think my April 14 ice out prediction might be wrong.

http://www.youtube.com/user/kayakcamper · **Posted by Uppa** 4/14/2018 8:55 pm

AlgonquinLakes wrote:
I’m beginning to think my April 14 ice out prediction might be wrong.

We shall see folks, there is 2 hours and 6 minutes left between now and the end of April 14th and I believe a lot can change by then. Until that time, cheers everyone!