Algonquin Adventures / 2018 Ice Out Predictions?

**Posted by crewser** 3/12/2018 3:07 pm

I will guess April 16th.

Also I am boldly predicting a much drier summer than last year. (or is this just wishful thinking?) After my first tripping experience to Linda Lake last summer where the portages were 85-90% mud paths, I'd like to avoid the worries of losing footwear on portages that would otherwise be a nice walk in the park.

**Posted by Rob** 3/13/2018 5:35 pm

Put me down for Opeongo Ice free by April 25th and the Park issuing canoe permits May 5th.

**Posted by yellowcanoe** 3/13/2018 5:47 pm

Looking at the 14 day Weather Network forecast, we seem to be slipping back to an extended period of below normal temperatures. I think we are looking at ice out in late April. I hope we don't wind up getting the torrential rains in early May we did last year -- our friend who has a house right on the Ottawa River in Gatineau came within a whisker of being flooded out last year and her neighbours on both sides were flooded.

**Posted by Kevin** 3/14/2018 11:41 am

I’ll go with May 3 for ice out. Hoping for sooner but don’t expect to get up there until then for first put in of the season. Thinking about a trip on Smoke Lake. Would expect it would be open sooner than Opeongo.

**Posted by Flybites** 3/14/2018 1:19 pm

Not sure if anyone knows much about ice out averages for Sturgeon Lake in Lindsay, or how much earlier it usually is compared to Algonquin, but we just checked it out, and it's mostly open. There were a few spots that had snow on them (could have been in a marshy area where the snow was on the vegetation, it was hard to tell when we were trying to get views between houses.

**Posted by RobW** 3/14/2018 5:15 pm

Flybites wrote:
Not sure if anyone knows much about ice out averages for Sturgeon Lake in Lindsay, or how much earlier it usually is compared to Algonquin, but we just checked it out, and it's mostly open. There were a few spots that had snow on them (could have been in a marshy area where the snow was on the vegetation, it was hard to tell when we were trying to get views between houses.

I can't comment on Lindsay area, but we had about 18" of ice on the lake at the cottage when we drilled our water hole Friday night. That's about 20 minutes south of Bancroft and about an hour south of Hwy 60.

**Posted by breed85** 3/14/2018 10:08 pm

RobW wrote:
Flybites wrote:
Not sure if anyone knows much about ice out averages for Sturgeon Lake in Lindsay, or how much earlier it usually is compared to Algonquin, but we just checked it out, and it's mostly open. There were a few spots that had snow on them (could have been in a marshy area where the snow was on the vegetation, it was hard to tell when we were trying to get views between houses.
I can't comment on Lindsay area, but we had about 18" of ice on the lake at the cottage when we drilled our water hole Friday night. That's about 20 minutes south of Bancroft and about an hour south of Hwy 60.

How much snow on the ice Rob?

I was up in Temagami a week snd a half ago and there was so little snow until we got to North Bay.

Some warm sunny days and some rain would likely deteriorate the ice quickly. I am going to stick with with April 16.

**Posted by ATVenture** 3/15/2018 5:47 am

breed85 wrote:
RobW wrote:
Flybites wrote:
Not sure if anyone knows much about ice out averages for Sturgeon Lake in Lindsay, or how much earlier it usually is compared to Algonquin, but we just checked it out, and it's mostly open. There were a few spots that had snow on them (could have been in a marshy area where the snow was on the vegetation, it was hard to tell when we were trying to get views between houses.
I can't comment on Lindsay area, but we had about 18" of ice on the lake at the cottage when we drilled our water hole Friday night. That's about 20 minutes south of Bancroft and about an hour south of Hwy 60.

How much snow on the ice Rob?

I was up in Temagami a week snd a half ago and there was so little snow until we got to North Bay.

Some warm sunny days and some rain would likely deteriorate the ice quickly. I am going to stick with with April 16.

Its so hard to say now at this point.
Here in North Bay we had VERY little snow 2 weeks ago, and we had 2 solid weeks of above 0 highs.
On Feb. 24 I went out on my snowmobile for what I honestly thought was going to be my last ride of the season. Here is a pic of one of our trails on the 24th:

Since then well over 12 inches of snow has fallen, and I've ridden my snowmobile(s) 1200+ km since that last photo was taken. I took this photo 2 days ago not too far from the North end of APP:

The local snowmobile club is predicting a later than normal season now at this point, usually they are summarizing the groomers right about now, but they are all still running steady.

Last edited by ATVenture (3/15/2018 5:48 am)

**Posted by breed85** 3/15/2018 6:36 am

ATVenture wrote:
Since then well over 12 inches of snow has fallen, and I've ridden my snowmobile(s) 1200+ km since that last photo was taken. I took this photo 2 days ago not too far from the North end of APP:

The local snowmobile club is predicting a later than normal season now at this point, usually they are summarizing the groomers right about now, but they are all still running steady.

Say it ain't so!
I'm still sending my "positive" warming vibes.
I'm booked at the Big Crowe cabin for May 3rd-6th. I sure hope it ain't a bust!

**Posted by RobW** 3/15/2018 8:29 am

breed85 wrote:
How much snow on the ice Rob?

About 3"-4" when we got there Friday night. Enough for my son to get his snowmobile out for a bit on Saturday. He didn't go too far up back but the lake was nice and flat. No problem taking the dog for a run up the back just wearing boots, no snowshoes required. On the other hand I saw an update yesterday that they now had enough snow in the Bancroft area to start grooming snowmobile trails again and quite a bit is now showing open today.

No snow often means thicker ice. Heavy snow acts as an insulator and the unfrozen lake will thaw the ice from below. With no snow and cold nights the ice gets thicker.

**Posted by Coureur des Biere** 3/15/2018 1:31 pm

Was up in Kawartha Highlands PP this past weekend camping in a hot tent and there was still 12-14" of ice with 5-6" of snow on top. The ice thickness was the exact same as when I was there on the same lake January 26th weekend.

**Posted by breed85** 3/21/2018 6:45 am

I am becoming increasingly worried about my early May trip not going ahead based off of some of the photos I have been seeing coming out of the West side of the Park (North of Huntsville)...

My crystal ball has become murky!

http://www.youtube.com/user/kayakcamper · **Posted by Uppa** 3/21/2018 7:43 am

breed85 wrote:
I am becoming increasingly worried about my early May trip not going ahead based off of some of the photos I have been seeing coming out of the West side of the Park (North of Huntsville)...

My crystal ball has become murky!

The 14 day forecast doesn't give much room for optimism either, but there's a lot of weather still to come between now and May. Says another guy with an early May booking, trying to convince himself it's going to be fine.

**Posted by Chuck Enwinde** 3/22/2018 12:43 am

I'd say it's the 14 day forecast after this 14 day forecast that will give you a better idea. An old timer once told me that it doesn't matter how thick or thin the ice is. All that matters is the weather in the last two weeks of April. With the right (or wrong) conditions even an inch or two of ice can linger. Conversely, with the right conditions 8-10 inches can disappear quickly. I'll be icefishing near Huntsville on the 31st of March so I can give an update, but again I don't know how valuable it will really be.

**Posted by Was Hardcore** 3/24/2018 11:08 am

Absolutely on April 22 gives about a week before my first reservation for 2018

**Posted by AO_GordB** 3/25/2018 2:48 pm

My colleague Randy Mitson took a drive through the Hwy 60 corridor on Thursday, marking the official start of the Algonquin Outfitters ice-out report for 2018. His report and pics are linked below, scroll down for the tour pics (unless you get distracted by the new Swift 16'8" solo Cruiser videos). Lots of pics on the AO Facebook page as well. If you are not inclined to click, the summary is that things are still frozen solid, pretty much the only open water is at river mouths and culverts.
http://algonquinoutfitters.com/algonquin-ice-out-march-2018/

Sample image, photo by Randy Mitson. LoTR on March 22, 2018:

**Posted by Chuck Enwinde** 3/26/2018 1:09 am

Was on one of the bigger lakes near Huntsville yesterday and measured 16" of ice. I'll be back up this coming weekend. We'll see how much ice we lose with the warmer temps and rain in the forecast.