I take the weather reports with a grain of salt.  I typically look at theweathernetwork's website in advance of a trip but when I do there are several caveats:

1. I only "trust" the weather report out to about 48 hours...anything beyond two days suffers and immense drop-off in accuracy and will likely change.  Something 5 or 6 days out it generally a crap shoot.  Beyond that is plain absurd.  As evidence of that, here's the forecast from today that shows substantially different conditions than you referenced...https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/weather/ontario/kearney

2. I look at the POP and wind estimates.  The probability of precipitation tells you that, under these conditions, you would expect to receive precipitation X% of the times these conditions occur.  So an 60% POP means that you will probably have some precipitation in 60% of the situations...not that it will rain 60% of the time.  These also are a bit of voodoo science trying to apply specific numeric indicators to what is a very fluid and transitioning process.  The wind predictions are also locally variant so that they are a general guide and not a hard and fast prediction by any means.

In the end, we live far enough away that we prepare for the worst possible conditions and cope with whatever we are dealt.  I could hardly imagine a circumstance where I would cancel a trip due to the forecast, as I have read many others' accounts of making those decisions.  For me, part of the enjoyment of the outdoors is experiencing them in a variety of circumstances and conditions...and sometimes that includes getting lemons and making lemonade.

Any wind prediction under about 20 Km/hr would not prevent me from taking a trip...although I would evaluate the conditions that I observe on the lake on that day and make a judgement call on "we can safely do this" or "let's wait this out until conditions improve".  I have read accounts of individuals who are quite wary of paddling in the wind; for them, I would recommend more paddling, research and getting more experience in those conditions to improve their skills and confidence to manage a common situation better.

When it comes to gear choice - large tent vs. small tent - that is your call.  I personally don't give much of a hoot about what other folks think I should do or, in general, what other folks would do.  They aren't me, they don't have my background, interests, hobbies or mindset.  What they may love, I may dislike; what they may prefer, I may find distasteful.  I do not disregard their input, but I consider it in light of my preferences, style and desires so that I consider their perspective as just that, coming from their perspective.  As an example, I would bring a tarp and sit under that instead of being cooped up in a tent.

PaPaddler & My Self Reliance - thanks very much for the replies.  I'm onboard with "you get what you get and you don't get upset" for weather.  Very recently I bought an onwego camp chair, so in the event of pouring buckets rain, chances are I'll sit out under the tarp and read as opposed to doing so in the tent, though I'm sure I'll nod off in either place. 

Those weather sites are neat, especially the windfinder one.  I could play with that all day, and I really like the display on that one as well.  It lays the information out very conveniently.  Thanks for passing that along.  In the grand sense, all the weather reports I've seen are similar: Friday nice, Saturday expect some rain and wind, Sunday rain tapers off expect some wind, daytime temps good, will drop off on both nights.

The wind thing is more....see, my canoe choices are a 17' Merrimack that I've had forever, and the 1967 old town canvas lightweight I bought at the beginning of the season.  I kind of promised the old town I'd take it, but the Merrimack felt sort of jilted.  I'm leaning toward the canvas because the other has had more adventures, plus there's a 10 pound difference.  I'm a little apprehensive about the wind because while I've had the canvas out a bunch, I haven't had it out in any kind of weather, and very rarely have I paddled it solo, so we don't have the....sounds stupid but....relationship I have with the Merrimack.  But I bought the canvas to build that relationship, and that can't happen if it is hanging in the garage.  Plus, I'm nervous about a hard wind is driving the boat into a portage entrance where I've got to do some heroic jumping out to prevent swearing and a winter project.  I'm expecting wet feet, but I'd rather not have the big dicey moment.  There are plus's and minus's to either boat, but it beats swimming so I'll take one or the other.  Game day decision.