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April 21.
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The pic shows ice starting to candle. Usually it will go out when around 10 inches deep. Candled ice is very weak with its columnar structure. Blue ice is weak ice.. then it goes gray.. It still is thick but it will go out fast then. We went from 14 inches to gone in two days.
I give it about a week. Winds could make the ice disappear faster.
Candle ice allows the rays of sun to intensify down the colum rather than reflect back as crystal ice does.
In cold temps at night you may see some refreezing but it cant compensate for the high angle of the sun. We had 20 cm snow today. Then the sun came out about noon and all except 6 cm is gone. It did not get above freezing.
Last edited by kayamedic (3/21/2016 7:58 pm)
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I went out to Kiosk last Monday and the ice was still tight to shore except for a few spots. Also last monday there was 10+ inches of snow still on most of the road requiring me to park a couple of km from the permit office. Yesterday you could drive the whole way in without problem in a compact car and the ice is receding from shore. At most spots on the shore it is impossible to walk out onto the ice because there is open water up to about 8-12 inches deep before the ice starts. Between these two visits all of the lows were below zero and the highs weren't much higher than +1 or 2 so that shows how much it can deteriorate just from the sun and wind.
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Since Tripper took my first guess (April 20) and Shayne74 grabbed my second (April 21), I'll go with April 19. At this point I'm seriously beginning to second-guess my mid-May trip decision re. bug conditions. Could be . . . 'interesting' Lol. 
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Sorry for the AO spam but but my colleague Randy Mitson took some nice shots and video on a road trip along Hwy 60 on March 21. All that ice is currently being covered with new snow:
algonquinoutfitters.com/blog/agonquin-outfitters/first-days-of-spring-2016/
I think he used a really long selfie stick for the aerial views 
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Lake Opeongo as of the second day of spring, March 21st 2016. Although the lakes are still ice covered I'm anticipating an earlier ice out than average (April 23rd) this year. Stay tuned we'll be doing more live reports from Algonquin Park as the conditions progress. 
Costello Creek has some open sections already
Water flow is high at Ragged Falls with the waterfalls fully exposed.
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the ice is out on rice lake and chemong lake (bridge north). my rule of thumb is once that these lakes are clear of ice the park will be mostly be ice free in two weeks. so i pick april12. very high winds and plenty of rain on the way!!
has the m.n.r. ever opened the put and take lakes (only) early to adjust for the earlier ice out? it seems to me this as happened before. i could be mistaken?
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Doubt it... the fish sanctuary dates for Algonquin Park are set by regulation, and there's a whole process for changing regulations. Maybe in the past the system was different and easier to change on a dime.
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Going to go for a drive tomorrow possibly all the way to Kiosk but I might just check out some of the small lakes along the Mattawa river, hoping to get my paddle wet on the weekend with any luck (Saturday before the Sunday freeze).
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Anyone up there yesterday? Are the shorelines going out yet?
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Except for where rivers and streams are coming in, most lakes are frozen right up to the shore. You could have a curling bonspiel on Oxtongue Lake today, the ice is beautifully pebbled and fast.
A Source Lake cottager sent me this picture, taken 3/27/16. His thumb indicates ice depth, roughly 20".
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Excellent Modis picture today as the skies over Southern Ontario appeared to be completely clear. Lakes SW of Ottawa, which are at a much lower elevation than lakes in Algonquin are still ice covered. Algonquin is still snow covered and my interpretation would be that the lakes still have snow coverage too! There is no way the lakes will be ice free before cold weather arrives on Sunday. It looks like temperatures will be staying at or below normal for a good long time.
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Well, we made it through the weekend to Monday and were still able to walk back from the cottage on the island to the mainland. I got a bit worried when the rain started around 3am. While the ice had still been solid, there wasn't a lot of good clear ice left and we had been watching old ice fishing holes getting bigger all weekend. Like the picture Gord pictured, most of what ice there is now is white, refrozen stuff which could have washed away really fast in the rain.
It will be interesting to see what happens over the next couple of weeks. The weather is almost siding on unusually cold now.
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Calling for LOTS of rain tonight... Followed by a couple weeks of pretty damn cold nights...
What does this all mean...............
Have May 22nd booked so for the sake of my well being I hope lakes are clear by then. It's been a long winter...
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100% sure the lakes will be clear of ice by then, RCSpartan. It's raining heavily right now in Algonquin Park and lots of snow and ice is melting. It's going to get cold again soon but I can guarantee that we will be ice free by May 22nd. :-)
