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@Mulder
The fact is they never had enough test kits to test for the corona virus. Especially during the beginning of the outbreak. This was a worldwide problem. In March, people without a suspect travel history in Canada, who were sick, had the symptoms and were expecting they were infected they were send home, told to isolate but were never tested. As a result they are not included in the confirmed numbers. They still only perform a limited amount of tests.
Governments in other countries wanting to know the real scope of the infections and death rates performed random street tests. These tests on the low end indicated ( This one was done weeks ago in the Netherlands so by now the numbers are higher. ) a 4% infection rate. BTW as far as I know Canada still has not approved this (blood) test they use for this.
I can also come up with a higher death rate for the flu. If you like to go with the confirmed deaths that start out as flu, turn into pneumonia and then result in death is 8000 per year in Canada. This would give a death rate of at least 14.5%.
Anyway all beside the point I was trying to make. At the moment people are presented with these high death rates while in reality they are no were near the +/-7% the official numbers suggest. Most likely they are around 0.175%.
Another interesting bit of information about new York. New York Gov. Cuomo actually mandated early on during the outbreak that nursing homes take on Covid 19 patients….That’s why they have sky high number of deaths in their Nursing homes.
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LeoV wrote:
@Mulder
The fact is they never had enough test kits to test for the corona virus. Especially during the beginning of the outbreak. This was a worldwide problem. In March, people without a suspect travel history in Canada, who were sick, had the symptoms and were expecting they were infected they were send home, told to isolate but were never tested. As a result they are not included in the confirmed numbers. They still only perform a limited amount of tests.
Governments in other countries wanting to know the real scope of the infections and death rates performed random street tests. These tests on the low end indicated ( This one was done weeks ago in the Netherlands so by now the numbers are higher. ) a 4% infection rate. BTW as far as I know Canada still has not approved this (blood) test they use for this.
I can also come up with a higher death rate for the flu. If you like to go with the confirmed deaths that start out as flu, turn into pneumonia and then result in death is 8000 per year in Canada. This would give a death rate of at least 14.5%.
Anyway all beside the point I was trying to make. At the moment people are presented with these high death rates while in reality they are no were near the +/-7% the official numbers suggest. Most likely they are around 0.175%.
Another interesting bit of information about new York. New York Gov. Cuomo actually mandated early on during the outbreak that nursing homes take on Covid 19 patients….That’s why they have sky high number of deaths in their Nursing homes.
There is no point to this, you are ignoring what MANY health agencies, epidemiologists and studies are saying. You are choosing to take the numbers and manipulate them to get your desired results. Can't reason with that, sorry.
Last edited by Mulder (5/11/2020 6:09 pm)
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@Mulder
Can you please supply we with links to these “MAY health agencies, epidemiologists and studies”
TIA
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Sorry LeoV but your "stats" are useless in this application, for one you're presenting CONFIRMED cases of covid Vs an estimate of ALL cases of the flu, and secondly you're comparing 3 months to an entire year. you're also completely ignoring the rate of long term or permanent damage. It's very rare for the flu to leave permanent disability, but there are several reports estimating as many as 15% of "recovered" Covid patients have permanent damage
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I agree you can manipulate both the numbers applicable to Covid 19 and the flu. I am sorry now I made the comparison as it takes away from what I was trying to get at. The COVID 19 deaths and COVID 19 patients taking up ICU beds are no were near the numbers the health professional experts were expecting and I feel that as a result we can open up businesses, parks etc. I am worried about the future standard of living for my kids and grand kids if we keep this up to long.
Anyway everyone has to make up their own mind. Some might still feel they have to stay home I am going for my 1½ hour walk and after that get the canoe out of storage. Probably do some canoeing next week.
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I think it was Dr. Tam - not sure - who said some thing along the lines of "If we do this right, everyone will think we over reacted". That appears to be where we are now. But it doesn't follow from that that we just walk away from everything we have already achieved.
That said, I too will probably be getting the canoe out of storage and perhaps using it -- it's hard to work up enthusiasm with morning temperatures well below freezing. And I'll probably visit the park within the next week (but maybe not with my canoe).
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It's definitely a delicate balance.. Open too soon and we get a bad second wave.. Stay shut down too long and the economic effects will cause significant deaths as well.
I don't think anyone has all the answers of how to get out of this with the least number of fatalities. We're all learning together. Overall, I do think the leaders in this country are doing a pretty good job.
What does concern me is that as we begin to open up I see a lot of people not wearing masks, not taking precautions and taking unnecessary higher risk outings. Many people are just done with the shutdown and have very short memories unfortunately.
Convincing people to remain vigilant will be the next big hurdle.
Last edited by ShawnD (5/12/2020 10:01 am)
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Can't wait, going to head up on Saturday for some hiking and fishing. Only place I'll be stopping is the gas station.
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"Yes officer, I always bring my 110L canoe pack with me on day trips..."
You joke, but on a day trip on a spring fishing trip we will usually take one of the big canoe packs with us to gather up tackle boxes and other gear for the portages. 
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LeoV The reason there "are no were near the numbers" is because the measures the government imposed are working, and that's a good thing. opening too soon is like the parachutist that said "my chute opened fine, so I don't need it anymore" while still 500' from the ground.
the Spanish flu killed about 3 million people in the first wave, but 30- 50 million in the second wave, same with SARS the second wave killed about 10 times as many during the second wave too.
With no cure, no vaccine, and no antibodies to protect us, opening everything up is just asking for trouble!
Last edited by scoutergriz (5/13/2020 7:28 am)
