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4/26/2020 3:51 pm  #18


Re: Ontario Parks Closed until June

Several things seem contradictory, and some downright punitive to me:

1. Hunting and fishing is open. Crown land is still closed. 

2. As an internal medicine specialist dealing with COVID19 directly, and with other medical conditions I can absolutely confirm that people are not seeking care promptly. The data from other countries indicates that COVID19-related deaths account for only 50% of the excess mortality during the epidemic. 

3. Backcountry camping is an extremely low-risk activity to the general population. 

4. My friend just got an $880 ticket for throwing a ball to his son in the local public park. His son. Middle of a field. Nobody around. He's just finished a week of COVID19 inpatient service.

We can all agree safety is paramount. However, the virus is not going away. The original rationale was not to eradicate the virus, this will be impossible short of a very effective vaccine. The original premise was to "flatten the curve" - in order to have sufficient resources (not just hospital/ICU beds, but also PPE and testing kits). 

The only justifiable reason I can see to continue the current lockdown is because there is an unpublicized and severe shortage of PPE or COVID19 testing kits. 

I see no justifiable reason to continue to allow hunting and fishing, while backcountry camping continues to be prohibited. 

Marko

 

4/26/2020 4:22 pm  #19


Re: Ontario Parks Closed until June

Marko_Mrko wrote:

Several things seem contradictory, and some downright punitive to me:

1. Hunting and fishing is open. Crown land is still closed. 

2. As an internal medicine specialist dealing with COVID19 directly, and with other medical conditions I can absolutely confirm that people are not seeking care promptly. The data from other countries indicates that COVID19-related deaths account for only 50% of the excess mortality during the epidemic. 

3. Backcountry camping is an extremely low-risk activity to the general population. 

4. My friend just got an $880 ticket for throwing a ball to his son in the local public park. His son. Middle of a field. Nobody around. He's just finished a week of COVID19 inpatient service.

We can all agree safety is paramount. However, the virus is not going away. The original rationale was not to eradicate the virus, this will be impossible short of a very effective vaccine. The original premise was to "flatten the curve" - in order to have sufficient resources (not just hospital/ICU beds, but also PPE and testing kits). 

The only justifiable reason I can see to continue the current lockdown is because there is an unpublicized and severe shortage of PPE or COVID19 testing kits. 

I see no justifiable reason to continue to allow hunting and fishing, while backcountry camping continues to be prohibited. 

Marko

All your points are spot on. Couldn't agree more and I feel your frustration. Thanks for posting.

 

4/26/2020 5:00 pm  #20


Re: Ontario Parks Closed until June

I don’t envy the people that have to make these decisions and I hesitate to criticize without having access to all the data. There could be lots of other factors at play that we have no idea about.

That said a few things seem funny to me. Saskatchewan is opening up businesses such as chiropractors and dentists on May 4th but not camping until June 1. So on May 4 you can go and get a dental check up and have someone put their hands in your month but you can’t go backcountry camping? Seems odd me. Especially since emergency dental work has been open the entire time. This is really opening up non essential dental visits before camping. And if it’s a financial consideration, dental offices don’t strike me as the first businesses to be on the brink of bankruptcy.

I’m sure we will see examples like this when Ontario releases their plan to reopen and I’m sure it will irritate me. At the end of the day there’s not a whole bunch I can do about it. I have reorganized all my trips now assuming they will open up the backcountry for June 1.

I’m as frustrated as anyone but I will still get my trips in and in the grand scheme of things, lack of camping really is a first world problem.Trying to keep that in perspective.


We do not go to the green woods and crystal waters to rough it, we go to smooth it.
 - George Washington Sears
 

4/26/2020 5:12 pm  #21


Re: Ontario Parks Closed until June

Marko_Mrko wrote:

Several things seem contradictory, and some downright punitive to me:

1. Hunting and fishing is open. Crown land is still closed. 

2. As an internal medicine specialist dealing with COVID19 directly, and with other medical conditions I can absolutely confirm that people are not seeking care promptly. The data from other countries indicates that COVID19-related deaths account for only 50% of the excess mortality during the epidemic. 

3. Backcountry camping is an extremely low-risk activity to the general population. 

4. My friend just got an $880 ticket for throwing a ball to his son in the local public park. His son. Middle of a field. Nobody around. He's just finished a week of COVID19 inpatient service.

We can all agree safety is paramount. However, the virus is not going away. The original rationale was not to eradicate the virus, this will be impossible short of a very effective vaccine. The original premise was to "flatten the curve" - in order to have sufficient resources (not just hospital/ICU beds, but also PPE and testing kits). 

The only justifiable reason I can see to continue the current lockdown is because there is an unpublicized and severe shortage of PPE or COVID19 testing kits. 

I see no justifiable reason to continue to allow hunting and fishing, while backcountry camping continues to be prohibited. 

Marko

 
Great post.

I get the picture that the government has backed away from the initial strategy of keeping the curve below the threshold of what the healthcare system can handle and are now in the "one death is one death too many" line of thinking.

Of course everything in life should be a calculated risk. Otherwise we wouldn't drive cars or leave our homes in the morning.

 

4/26/2020 7:36 pm  #22


Re: Ontario Parks Closed until June

The goal is and always has been to minimize COVID deaths.  So far the government is doing a good job (providing we don't look at testing too critically).  I'm just very pleased that the government is making these decisions and not JoeScmoe.

Those who can, do;  those who can't, throw stones.

 

4/26/2020 8:00 pm  #23


Re: Ontario Parks Closed until June

rgcmce wrote:

The goal is and always has been to minimize COVID deaths.  So far the government is doing a good job (providing we don't look at testing too critically).  I'm just very pleased that the government is making these decisions and not JoeScmoe.

Those who can, do;  those who can't, throw stones.

 
By that logic, we should take all cars off the road and shut the economy down every flu season in order to minimize deaths as well.

 

4/26/2020 8:23 pm  #24


Re: Ontario Parks Closed until June

Another example of why I'm glad the government is running things and not JoeScmoe.

 

4/26/2020 10:44 pm  #25


Re: Ontario Parks Closed until June

I have fears that this continues through the entire summer and maybe even beyond somehow, until the COVID thing is really under control - who knows when the border will open for non-essential business, or when the park will open, etc.  I rekindled my canoe-tripping in 2016 after a 16-year layoff.  I'm 54, so I still have good canoe-tripping years in front of me, but I know I have fewer tripping years in front of me than are behind me, and watching a season dwindle away just really bothers me.  Can't really be helped, we're all at the mercy of the situation health-wise and government-imposed rules-wise, but ugh.  I'm just hoping I can take a late September trip but I'm trying not to get my hopes up.  EVERYTHING is up in the air right now.

 

4/27/2020 5:08 am  #26


Re: Ontario Parks Closed until June

@JoeScmoe - you don't seem to understand that what Jdbonney and others have said is not to focus on one inaccurate indicator.  For some reason you myopically focus that if we have enough ICU beds we should all return to our normal lives. 

The reason there are ICU beds available is two-fold - we have been social distancing/reducing interactive activities coupled with a reduction in the frequency of non-emergent surgical procedures.  Due to those two factors, we have room in the ICUs and other floors of the hospitals that aren't as acute-care focused.  You have also introduced yet another "my brother talks to doctors and we have a high death rate" which is a single snapshot, rife with bias and inaccuracy.  If someone is critically ill at home they should go to the hospital and as you have repeatedly stated, there should be plenty of room for them in an ICU to get the care they need.

What I would call the true tragedy of this is that we live in the information age and not everyone is using it.  People in the middle ages had little knowledge of what the plague was or how to stop it.  We know genetically what this virus is, how it is transferred, how to slow it and, eventually, how to stop it.  Yet we hear these voices that say "let's live in the 1300's"...

 

4/27/2020 5:42 am  #27


Re: Ontario Parks Closed until June

@Marko - I'd be interested to read the peer-reviewed published data about "the data that indicates Covid19-related deaths only accounting for 50% of excess mortality" if you have a link to it and it's not too much of a bother to post it.  My search of google scholar on the subject came up pretty empty - one study specifically related to cardiac disease and transplant patients in Italy that isn't at all representative of the full patient population.  

 

4/27/2020 7:14 am  #28


Re: Ontario Parks Closed until June

PaPaddler wrote:

@Marko - I'd be interested to read the peer-reviewed published data about "the data that indicates Covid19-related deaths only accounting for 50% of excess mortality" if you have a link to it and it's not too much of a bother to post it.  My search of google scholar on the subject came up pretty empty - one study specifically related to cardiac disease and transplant patients in Italy that isn't at all representative of the full patient population.  

as my wife puts it, talk to the insurance underwriters- she's adjudicated life claims for over 30 years and states you need to look at total deaths as compared to previous years, and every province is up by more than 15% this year.
The problem is that unless there's an autopsy WITH covid testing, which rarely happens with seniors or those with underlying conditions who die at home, those deaths are labelled as "natural causes", or "heart failure" (every undiagnosed death is heart failure)
So, taking the 2% out of the equation there are still 12% or more deaths above the average this year, even with the lack of auto accidents, workplace injuries, etc
 

 

4/27/2020 8:36 am  #29


Re: Ontario Parks Closed until June

Thank you for the front line perspective Marko, and thank you for the work you are doing right now. I had wondered about hunting and fishing being open as well. The only thing I can come up with is that they are activities that people can use to feed themselves, so they would fall under the same category as the community gardens that are to be opened soon. Who knows if that is correct, but I like to think there is some overarching strategy at play because the alternative sucks.

Regarding testing, it seems to me that there must be a shortage, otherwise we would be seeing a more robust testing regimen put in place by now. I don't see how things can go back to quasi-normal without widespread testing, so to me that has to be one of the most important factors to be following right now. 

 

4/27/2020 8:55 am  #30


Re: Ontario Parks Closed until June

Wow. This Covid virus sure has put our collective "knickers-in-a-twist", eh?

I'm thinking that the combination of the test fiasco and unknowns regarding immunity & therapy drugs has officials concerned .. concerned that should the "foot be taken off the gas" of control measures, a rebound of infection could be more that the health system could manage.

Many "models" forecast both the potential for such rebounds, as well as a flu-matched resurgence this fall and winter. As well, the news is peppered with both optimistic and pessimistic articles regarding vaccine development. Load all this troubling confusion with inconsistencies between economists and scientists, and it's no wonder our angst level is climbing to its own "apex".

MWDave is 54 and concerned over dwindling trip prospects. How about those of use like Bo and myself who are past the 70 mark .. less years left and who knows what virus odds?

Let's just remember we're all in this together ..

 

4/27/2020 8:59 am  #31


 

4/27/2020 9:03 am  #32


Re: Ontario Parks Closed until June

And yes Barry, you and Bo are certainly right to be worried about the loss of a season in the backcountry(although I’m confident we will get some outside time this summer).

There is a saying in sports that is apt:
Father Time is undefeated.

 

4/27/2020 10:33 am  #33


Re: Ontario Parks Closed until June

At the end of the day you can only control what you can control. I can't imagine how much worse things would be if Colonel Sanders won the provincial election. Nothing is stopping anyone from doing daytrips to crown land. Fishing and hunting aren't cancelled to enjoy. Perfect time to get out before the blackflies get bad.  Start planning those fall trips and don't expect backcountry to open before July 1. 

 

4/27/2020 11:53 am  #34


Re: Ontario Parks Closed until June

Lenny wrote:

I can't imagine how much worse things would be if Colonel Sanders won the provincial election. 

Ok?
I can imagine it would have been worse for the chicken population.

 

Board footera

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