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I guess if I don't have anything positive to say I likely shouldn't say anything at all on this thread. But really, it's April 6 and the ski trails in the Park are still open. The FOAP site is still showing "Winter in Algonquin" on its homepage. Again, I expect a record late ice-out. I'll say May 17th.
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So how does the lake ice melt? Once the snow melts off the top of the ice, the ice is exposed to the sun. The ice then acts like a greenhouse to the lake water, and as the sun shines on the ice, it heats the water underneath the ice. The ice then starts to melt from the bottom, where it is touching the water. When the ice thickness erodes to between 4 and 12 inches, it transforms into long vertical crystals called "candles." These conduct light well, so the ice starts to look black, because it is not reflecting much sunlight.
As the sun continues to heat the ice, the water below the ice continues to warm. Meltwater fills in between the crystals, which begin breaking apart. The surface appears grayish as the ice reflects a bit more light than before.
Then, all we need is a windy day to break the surface ice apart. The ice candles will often be blown to one side of the lake, making a tinkling sound as they knock against one another, and pile up on the shore. It's amazing how this final process seems to take just a few hours where one day the lake is ice-covered and the next it is not.
Over the next few weeks, the speed of the ice-out process will be dependent on how much sun and wind we get.
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I believe in the reversion to the mean. so... the ice goes out the 24th-26th like the long term averages. However, that is late in the week, so the park won't open that weekend (the 26th). i expect, like others have mentioned, that the park will open the canoeing season the following weekend, on Friday May 3rd.
Thank you to northern fox. that was a great reminder of the process, and well-written.
Last edited by Methye (4/06/2019 9:22 am)
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MAY 10th.
That's my prediction for ice-out. Winner receives GPS co-ordinates to my favorite secret brook trout fishing hole in APP - guaranteed 5lb'rs. 
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The weather is more important than the current state of the ice thickness or the snow depth - just keep reminding yourself of that. Last year Spring refused to arrive, but there doesn't seem to be any indication of that repeating this year.
So I'm actually feeling pretty optimistic right now. My 7 day ice-out trip is booked for May 13th, but if it goes out sooner then I may just slip in a trip ahead of that.
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We were up to the cottage for the weekend. That's 20 minutes south of Bancroft, an hour south of Whitney. We had 25" of ice when we drilled the water hole Friday night. Double checked that measurement Saturday morning. That is about 7" more than we had on April 3rd last year. I expect to be safely walking out to the island when we go up for Easter weekend 2 weeks from now.
I tend to be an optimist when it comes to spring ice out, and the forecast is looking a lot better than it did at this time last year, but I'm officially giving up on an April ice out for Algonquin. 
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If I had to hazard a guess, I would say sometime between April 26 and May 21st.
If I had to narrow it down to just 1 day, I would questionably say May 6th as this is the day I am planning on heading in.
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LOTR was covered with snowmelt water this past Saturday. Sunday morning most of it was gone from the surface. Very little shore melt as well. My guess, looking at the two week weather report, May 8th !
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Was hoping to do my first ice out trip this year, but I start a new job on May 6th and it's looking like I'll need the stars to align to squeeze in a trip before then. If the Friday opening trend continues, maybe I can get lucky with a May 3rd opening, but that still means only a 2-nighter and some very last minute planning/packing.
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Booked for May 8th, but I I'm thinking ice out is going to be a few days later than that. Still too much snow on the lakes up here
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I looked at the photo of Smoke Lake, as of April 9th, as seen on the FOAP site that Paddlerunner just referenced. 60-80 centimeters thick? What's a couple feet of ice? My canoe can 100% get through that no problem. Of course, I don't want the old girl to show off too much, so I'll probably just wait until ice out.
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I booked my first spring trip this year for may 10th, I was thinking "what are the odds of late ice out two years in a row". Not feeling too positive about it. I also feel like I'm going slightly insane constantly looking for updates.
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Despite the fact that my May 13th start date will be very hard to change at this point, I'm still feeling pretty confident. Here's the 7-day Lake of Two Rivers forecast: warm days, lots of sun, lots of rain, and mostly above zero overnights. That's serious snow and ice melting weather. 
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Uppa wrote:
Despite the fact that my May 13th start date will be very hard to change at this point, I'm still feeling pretty confident. Here's the 7-day Lake of Two Rivers forecast: warm days, lots of sun, lots of rain, and mostly above zero overnights. That's serious snow and ice melting weather.
It's crazy how quickly forecasts change. This time last week we were predicted to not have many days over 10 degrees until late april! Hoping this new forecast stays true!
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A quick reminder to everyone on AA. The Algonquin Outfitters Ice Out contest closes in just two weeks. There's no better time to submit your guess for this years ice out of Lake Opeongo in Algonquin Park for a chance to win prizes!
