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3/26/2019 10:13 am  #35


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

My new process has been to optimistically book a trip early in May. (Right now I have a trip booked starting May 4th.) If things don’t look positive as we head towards April I book a back up trip which for me because of family obligations on the mother’s day weekend and the May long weekend always falls into the 3rd week which isn’t ideal from a bug situation but there you have it.

I booked a back up trip starting May 23rd a few days ago.


We do not go to the green woods and crystal waters to rough it, we go to smooth it.
 - George Washington Sears
 

3/26/2019 11:50 am  #36


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

We are about 40-50 cm of snow behind of last year at this time according to the snow cover on https://www.ventusky.com . You can go back to March 2018 and compare to March 2019.  
Based on that it's not looking promising. 

 

3/26/2019 12:04 pm  #37


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

I'll be booking for the week of May 13th, but I am fully open to adjusting to the week of the 20th...might happen this year, but one never knows how much sunshine we get!

     Thread Starter
 

3/26/2019 2:09 pm  #38


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

i am booked may 14th,, ice could be gone by then?

 

3/27/2019 8:53 am  #39


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

I am booked for May 3. Optimistic I know, but that week is likely the only time I can go - we are planning to loop from Cedar to Lavieille and back.

Should the weather not cooperate, are there any recommendations for alternative destinations where ice might be out earlier and that would accommodate a 6 night trip???

 

3/27/2019 9:37 am  #40


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

swedish pimple wrote:

i am booked may 14th,, ice could be gone by then?

There is only 1 year on record with an ice out date of May 15th so this year would have to almost tie  or even  break that record for interior permits not to be available by May 14th. 
 

 

3/27/2019 2:12 pm  #41


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

I'll be surprised if its an early one this year. Small backcountry lakes around me in the dorset area have over 2ft still. I am guessing second week of May sadly. In better news, im heading out ice fishing in a few hrs.

 

3/27/2019 3:53 pm  #42


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

RobW wrote:

There is only 1 year on record with an ice out date of May 15th so this year would have to almost tie  or even  break that record for interior permits not to be available by May 14th. 
 

Seems quite likely we could tie or beat the record this year, especially if we factor in the permit issue date rather than just the official ice-out. Again, the Friday opening seems to be a trend, which suggests it's most reasonable to plan around the 3rd, 10th, or 17th as potential starts. I'm hoping for the 10th but will not be surprised if it's pushed to the 17th if actual ice-out occurs after the 10th. 

 

3/28/2019 8:36 am  #43


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

Well... if we want to start tracking "permit available" dates, that would be a new metric. To make the ice out date tracking at all consistent we need to keep that based on the established 'standard'. ;-)

Personally I think it is too early to worry about May dates yet. 3 weeks of seasonal weather in April would give an April ice out. Once we hit April 1st, then I'll start having a more serious opinion as to whether it will drag out to May. IT's still March and we are already seeing overnight lows that are mostly in the single digit negatives this week. That isn't "ice building" cold like we were seeing last year, so any loss during the daytime won't be recovered over night. Don't forget that with the right temperatures and sunlight, ice that is 12" thick will 'candle' and basically just fall apart. 

Now, if we get a week in the first half of April with daytime highs below 0C and overnight lows below -16C, then we can start thinking about a May ice out. 

(Snowmobile trails are mostly closed now, so my head is definitely switching to open water mode.)
 

 

3/28/2019 1:07 pm  #44


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

RobW wrote:

Well... if we want to start tracking "permit available" dates, that would be a new metric. To make the ice out date tracking at all consistent we need to keep that based on the established 'standard'. ;-)

Personally I think it is too early to worry about May dates yet. 3 weeks of seasonal weather in April would give an April ice out. Once we hit April 1st, then I'll start having a more serious opinion as to whether it will drag out to May. IT's still March and we are already seeing overnight lows that are mostly in the single digit negatives this week. That isn't "ice building" cold like we were seeing last year, so any loss during the daytime won't be recovered over night. Don't forget that with the right temperatures and sunlight, ice that is 12" thick will 'candle' and basically just fall apart. 

Now, if we get a week in the first half of April with daytime highs below 0C and overnight lows below -16C, then we can start thinking about a May ice out. 

(Snowmobile trails are mostly closed now, so my head is definitely switching to open water mode.)
 

Love the optimistic attitude! Looking at the 7 day forecast (which obviously can change drastically), next Wed/Thurs is calling for daytime highs of 11 and 15, with night time temps at 3 and 7, respectively! Let's hope this holds true!

 

3/29/2019 10:16 am  #45


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

Some lakes are already breaking up in the Muskoka region.  There was 7 ft. of snow outside my window from the snowplow storing snow from my parking lot.  It is now down to 3 feet.  All we need is about a week's weather of highs and lows above freezing.  Daytime sun definitely helps too.  This contributes to 24 hours of ice shrinking and snow disappearing.  April definitely has to be better this year than last year.....right????  I plan on going in on my trip on May 6th.  I don't see a problem at this moment of this not happening.


CAMPING IS WHEN YOU SPEND A LOT OF MONEY TO LIVE LIKE A HOMELESS PERSON!
 

4/03/2019 1:21 pm  #46


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

I gonna chime in and say ice out on Wed. May 1...I think flooding might be an issue this year though....

Moonman.

 

4/03/2019 7:48 pm  #47


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

Moonman wrote:

I gonna chime in and say ice out on Wed. May 1...I think flooding might be an issue this year though...

I have a good feeling about this prediction.

 

4/04/2019 7:43 am  #48


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

My official and wishful guess is still April 23rd. With the forecast for the next week showing highs well above 0C and lows (after tonight) of -1C at the lowest I won't be surprised to see ice out on the 26th but no permits issued until the 29th. 

 

4/04/2019 10:32 am  #49


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

RobW I love your wishful enthusiasm. 

As we enter April these next 3 weeks are crucial.

Fingers crossed folks!! 
 

 

4/04/2019 11:32 am  #50


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

Hey everyone, I'm all on board the optimist train! My friend told me to check out the MODIS sat data, and holy crap look at that snow line recession between April 1-3. Spring is sprung!

https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/modis/modis.php?region=g&page=1&fbclid=IwAR0UCymSJn7aNYFpiiDJDaaE8E7qTzJIcKDWTBfljVCjyzpHve24BO4i83I

 

4/04/2019 1:57 pm  #51


Re: ice out 2019 - too early to discuss?

Don't get too excited comparing to April 1st as southern Ontario got about 3" of snow on the weekend. Ground was bare up to Peterborough (at least) before the weekend. 

The Bay of Quinte has opened up more since then but the snowline really hasn't moved north and the fresh snow has probably slowed down the melt on Simcoe by increasing the reflection of sunlight. 

 

Board footera

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