If anything it's late. :-)

I'll go with Monday, April 23rd which gives the park enough time to admit that the ice is out and issue interior permits for the start of trout season on the 27th. 

My guess is May 7th. And I hope I'm able to trip by then. Fingers crossed that my broken collarbone is healed well enough to get a couple mini trips in before the June Bugs-from-Hell season.

Yeah, I have to agree with Peek. And I expect those dates are about bang on. Last year I would have sworn things were going to open up two weeks before they finally did. It seems we're into a long stretch of late ice-outs and later openings. Now that I can actually get out in the early spring, it sure would be great to see a mid-April ice-out for a change, but I have little hope of such this year for sure. 

For the first time ever when I went trout fishing the other day my auger could not get to the bottom of the ice without first shoveling all the slush off the surface - even then I almost couldn't punch holes. That means the ice was over 36 inches thick on a back lake near North APP. Today while snowmobiling DEEP in the backcuntry we found snow well over 5ft deep on our trail. At one point my buddy literally had to pull me out of the snow because I fell in up to my kneck when I steped off my sled and my feet weren't touching anything solid yet.
I say May 16th.

Last edited by ATVenture (3/02/2019 11:01 pm)

I wasted some time reviewing ice out dates, and broke it down by decade to see if that would smooth the data, or if I could spot any trends.  Very informal, I was picking the dates off a chart rather than seeing the real opening dates so I am sure I have some minor errors on actual ice out dates, but it is close enough for jazz.  Here is what I found:

The overall 1964-2018 average ice out date was April 27th.  By Decade:
1964-1969 = April 27 (earliest 4/15, latest 5/14)  
1970-1979 = May 2 (earliest 4/20, latest 5/15)
1980-1989 = April 27 (earliest 4/18, latest 5/5)
1990-1999 = April 29 (earliest 4/17, latest 5/12)
2000-2009 = April 26 (earliest 4/21, latest 5/4 - only once was it in May)
2010-2018 = April 25 (earliest 3/29, latest 5/10 - 3/29 really influenced the average there)
So it looks like it is trending down, but for the most recent six years:
2013-2018 = May 2 (earliest 4/25, latest 5/10).

So all my pretend science leads me to pick:
May 3rd.  I would have gone with May 2nd, just based on the last five years, but taking ATVentures hilarious (as long as you aren't the one sinking up to your neck in God's flavorless powdered sugar) snowmobiling story into account, I've added a day.

The companion question is what about bug in?  Bug in is my official term for the date when the bugs become a source of biting aggravation.  As we all know, there is a limited period of time between ice out and bug in.  Unfortunately, it is difficult to pinpoint the relation between variations in the ice out date and the bug in date (although we know mosquitoes won't be flying out of ice).  Additionally, bug in is highly regionalized, very subjective, and there's not a lot of data.  For this exercise, I relied entirely on anecdotal evidence found on this website, which at times is very entertaining to read:

In looking at the comments, I realized there was a "Clear" period, then a brief "Turning" period, then "Bug In".  Assuming ice out occurs between 4/28 and 5/2, which is pretty typical, the clear period commences 4/28 (even though you might be bobsledding your canoe), and seems to run about three weeks until around 5/18.  The brief "Turning" period runs from about 5/19 - 5/22, after which "bug in" occurs, giving trips based around Victoria Day an extra reason for excitement (or anxiety).  

If ATVenture is correct with his 5/16 date, obviously my "Clear" range will be off, but I don't think it will be slip out on a day-for-day basis, I just think it will be a bit shorter.  Bugs will get their start as much with overall temperature as with ice out, so if ice out were that late, my bet would be that the Clear and Turning period combined would be maybe a two week window rather than three. 
  
So, I'm thinking ice out happens 5/3, and bug in happens around 5/23.  By the way, the average temperatures during the clear/turning period for the past three years are a high of 18 C (65 F) and a low of 4 C (39 F). There is very little precipitation, and the winds are generally not bad at all, 11 KPH (7 MPH). 

Of course with all this, especially temps, wind and precipitation, you mileage may vary. 

My published results will appear in the next issue of MAD Magazine.

Hoping to get there myself this year during the clear period.

It's been a long winter ... how about March 7th ???

Currently thinking it may be safer to book my week+ long May trip for that middle week starting on the 11th. And yet with a major blizzard blowing the snow straight sideways this morning, it feels like spring is still 6 months away!! 

Dontgroandaddy you reminded me of a chart I looked at on the Friends site last year, went back to find the link.  I decided not to copy/paste the chart as didn't want to run afoul of any forum rules but there is a nice chart here:  http://www.algonquinpark.on.ca/news/ice-out.php

  And with all that being said, I'm going to go with a wishful April 30.  Not sure that I want to make a bug in guess but we'll go with May 21 (ish).

 

Last edited by GordK (3/19/2019 10:35 am)