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Hey everyone,
Every year there's an ice-out contest, but this year we are lucky - we get to have a second date-guessing competition! Ok, here's the rules:
1. You need to state the date the fire ban will be lifted
2. One entry per person
3. You may also state the rationale for your guess
4. Winner will be selected according to the following criteria:
a) closest to the date (without going over, of course as we want to keep Bob Barker happy)
b) in case of tie, most creative reason for the rationale of fire ban end date will be the Weiner
5) Prize: there may be a prize, depending on whether I can find something cool. I'm thinking something along the lines of fire starting or fire extinguishing.Right now, I'm thinking a reasonable prize is a pack of home-made fire starters, as well as a couple of plugs of sweeeeeeet Balkan pipe tobacco. Very flavourful. Even in a campfire to start the trip as good luck.
6) Deadline for guessing is June 20, as I start my Algonquin trip on the 21st.
Prize suggestions gladly considered.
Good luck!!!
Cheers
Marko
PS. My question is June 20th hahahahha
Last edited by Marko_Mrko (7/14/2018 5:22 pm)
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My guess is the ban will be lifted on Monday July 30th. My reasoning is that this is the day after the end of my upcoming planned trip and this year the weather is not playing nicely with my plans.
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Oh nice idea. I think fire ban will be lifted on August 15th, because I love blueberries. And I want to be able to make blueberry crumble over the coals of a fire.
For prize? An extendable fork to hold those wieners over that beautiful fire!
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Ontario Forest Fires Information
Restricted Fire Zone
During a Restricted Fire Zone, the use of open fires – such as campfires, or burning of brush or debris, is restricted. Failure to comply could result in fines of up to $25,000 and three months in jail, as well as financial responsibility for the costs incurred in fighting a forest fire.
Portable gas or propane stoves are permitted for use for cooking or warmth, though they should be closely monitored. Portable charcoal BBQs and Hibachis are not permitted unless within 100 metres of a dwelling, or within an organized campground.
Forest Fire Info Map
Alerts in Ontario Parks
FireSmoke Canada
Canadian Wildland Fire Information System
CWFIS Interactive map
Last edited by Tripper_Scott (7/22/2018 7:50 pm)
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I will guess August 06. My rationale is that a lifted fire ban would be a good start to the week, and I am also leading a youth trip to Algonquin on the 10th and I'm trying to be optimistic.
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Average monthly rainfall for July is 84mm. So far in July there has been 41 mm of rain, but almost all of that coming in just the last few days (weekend of 13-15th). Another 10mm forecast tonight and into Mondaythe 16th bringing us to 51 mm. A few showers on Tuesday the 17th are possible.
Reversion to the mean would say that we should expect another 33 mm in the second half of July to bring us up to 84mm. But the forecast for 14 days shows minimal rainfall (after this Tuesday the 17th) and a lot of sun, bringing us to the very end of July.
One good storm wont do it. It will take several days in a row of heavy rains. i just can't see the bush getting soaked enough to call this thing off until mid August. Looks like the long weekend will be campfire-less.
I will guess August 9th just to be optimistic. (I'm going canoeing on the 17th.)
Last edited by Methye (7/15/2018 9:29 pm)
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I am going to guess we'll see the ban lifted either just before or after labor day weekend. I don't think there will be any fires in August period.
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August 19th ... my buddy's birthday. Gotta have a campfire then ..
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hmm unfortunately i think its going to be a while. How about Aug 15th..
Prize suggestions.. How about one of these Marko. have just the spot in my basement. LOL
Last edited by ShawnD (7/19/2018 10:50 am)
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Hahaha yes Shawn! I've been eyeing one of these for a couple of years... Imagine all the amazingly preserved backcountry avocado... Hmmmm... Maybe they'll give us a group discount?
I'll add char cloth to the prize pack... another way of starting a fire. Looking for those weiner sticks... missed Prime Day 
Off to NTL Saturday! No fire, but who cares!!!
M
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Nice idea on the contest 😄 I'd like to think it will be in the next few days...😬 But more realistically will guess Aug 14... Rationale is more random as I'll be headed into the park on the 16th and the 15th was already guessed...
Crossing my fingers for sooner than later...🤞
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I know this forecast won't hold true for the whole park, but the "Algonquin Provincial Park" forecast from The Weather Network shows...
3 days in a row with 70-80% POP and 10-20mm each day.. sounds good to me!
I'll be the optimistic voter and guess July 26th
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I like that forecast. I'll make sure to bring along my axe just to make sure that I can get to some nice dry wood in case the fire ban is lifted. I think I should also bring along my bug shirt as the rain always brings out the mosquitoes.
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Looks like the fire ban won't be lifted anytime soon:
From the most recent update to fire zone expanded to additional parts of the Northeast fire region (southern region)""" The expanded Restricted Fire Zone now includes Zones 24, 25, & 26 which would include areas south of the French River, including Parry Sound, from Georgian Bay east to the Quebec border, including Algonquin Provincial Park and from Renfrew north to Mattawa. """
I know that a fire ban already existed in the park but it seems this new development implies that things are that much worse.
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I think the ban will come down on 03august. Probably announced on august 2.
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I love it. Coming back from NTL Tuesday, it seemed like there was a lot of rain all over, and I was disappointed the fire ban did not come down on Wednesday.
However, sure seems like it's a dangerous fire season and with these conditions it's certainly essential to respect the decisions of experts regarding fire safety.
Heading on a 10-day loop with the family starting Aug 4th. Looks like Tuesday night/Wednesday is gonna be a drenching, and that would work well.
I realized that I also have coupons from AO for $50 or so, happy to throw that into the prize pool!!!
Cheers
Marko
Ps. Thanks AO!!
Last edited by Marko_Mrko (7/27/2018 4:27 pm)
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They lifted the ban in so many places surrounding Algonquin... just not Algonquin. My optimistic guess was close but no cigar. Now I’m feeling confident about next week after the few days of heavy rainfall
Edit:
Last edited by trippythings (7/27/2018 7:52 pm)
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