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4/23/2021 6:59 am  #35


Re: may 20 th opener on friends of algonquin park update sat apr 17th

OTCanadienne wrote:

trippythings wrote:

ShawnD wrote:

So the person vaccinated is likely fine yes but while we still have millions of people out there who want the vaccine and haven’t got it yet can we all remember that vaccinated people can still be asymptomatic carriers and infect others. Can we please wait till all people who want to be vaccinated are?

With the provinces current state and high case numbers, I think it's smart to mask and distance regardless of your vaccine status right now. Once we can get things under control then maybe start to ease up. But like you said Shawn, there's still a risk of someone vaccinated infecting others and right now there's just too much spread in the community and no ICU capacity to take that risk.

Again this is wrong. The available evidence does not agree with you. It's silly to still distance and mask post vaccination.
 

I find this reaction hard to understand. Even if it does turn out to be completely unnecessary to do these things, we are where we are right now because we’ve consistently let down our guards too early. I’d much rather be cautious for a bit longer until more of the population is covered rather than find out after it’s too late that my vaccine doesn’t work against one of the variants or that it turns out I can be an an asymptomatic carrier.

I’m curious, is this a personal freedom issue for you or something else? When it comes down to it I don’t find masks/social distancing too onerous, but I know lots of people disagree with me on that.

Last edited by AlgonquinLakes (4/23/2021 7:03 am)

 

4/23/2021 8:22 am  #36


Re: may 20 th opener on friends of algonquin park update sat apr 17th

OTCanadienne wrote:

petey wrote:

My May 14th trip is still in my reservation queue but typically they don't cancel and reimburse until close to the date. That was what I saw last year. They hang on to your money until the last minute? With that being said, I can't imagine them opening things before the 20th and also wonder why they will open just before a long weekend. Carrot and stick I suppose.

Got our first Pfizer yesterday. Smooth operation here in London with lots of friendly folks manning the ramparts. Even after the second dose we'll be still masking and distancing.

 
Masking and distancing after the second dose is ludicrous

Old guys like me have to set an example for the kids ehhttps://cdn.boardhost.com/emoticons/tongue.png

 

 

4/23/2021 8:36 am  #37


Re: may 20 th opener on friends of algonquin park update sat apr 17th

AlgonquinLakes wrote:

I’m curious, is this a personal freedom issue for you or something else? When it comes down to it I don’t find masks/social distancing too onerous, but I know lots of people disagree with me on that.

I'm curious as well because I honestly don't see why people make it such a big deal to just choose the safer option. Or at least being cautious until there's more certain evidence (especially including the variants) and until our province's numbers get better. I personally know people who have gotten their first dose and have still gotten COVID, and then there's stories like this as well. It's ironic that OTC mentioned "but good to wait 14 days just to be safe" regarding the vaccine, but won't stand by the same 'just to be safe' logic for wearing a mask.


Trip Reports & Campsite Pictures
www.algonquinbeyond.com
 

4/23/2021 9:23 am  #38


Re: may 20 th opener on friends of algonquin park update sat apr 17th

The study results linked below include a timeframe of December 2020 to March 2021 and provide guidance of their real-world results related to a specific vaccine type (mRNA from Pfizer or Moderna) but not all people are receiving that type so there is likely variability in the efficacy of mRNA vs. others.  They defined "partially immunized" as greater than or equal to 14 days after the first dose and fully immunized as greater than or equal to 14 days after the second dose.  They found 5.2% of recipients tested positive for Covid after showing symptoms or purely as a result of a test.  They also identified very clearly that:  "The 13 person-days between vaccine administration and partial or full immunization were considered excluded at-risk person-time because immunity was considered to be indeterminate."

So the esteemed clinicians involved in this particular set of research could not conclude that you were safe in a short time after the first dose (two weeks) and concluded that there was still a risk after the 14 days post first-dose, if I am reading this correctly.

It is far simpler to follow the distilled guidance from the CDC and other health organizations for the appropriate behaviors to reduce the risk of virus transmission during and after receiving the vaccine.  In other words, they recommend mask use and distancing among other behavioral adjustments.  Of course, anyone can choose to follow or ignore their guidance but it would be irresponsible to inform the public that "there is no risk" or "that's wrong" without providing sound evidence otherwise.

=13pxhttps://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7013e3.htm

 

4/23/2021 10:02 am  #39


Re: may 20 th opener on friends of algonquin park update sat apr 17th

I feel like maybe we can lock this thread? 

 

4/23/2021 10:15 am  #40


Re: may 20 th opener on friends of algonquin park update sat apr 17th

It's also worth noting that we're referencing studies that have followed the recommended vaccine dose schedule, which we aren't following in Canada.

Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I haven't seen any studies that show how quickly efficacy drops off after 1 dose when waiting 16 weeks to get the second dose, and also if double-dose efficacy rates stay the same when doses are administered 16 weeks apart.

The studies have shown first dose is 60-80% as effective... but that's only within the 3-4 weeks before they get their second dose. Does the 60-80% hold true for an additional 2-3 months, since that's how long we're waiting before we get out second dose? I know I prefer to keep my mask on and not find out myself

"Partial immunization (≥14 days after first dose but before second dose) provided preventive benefits with vaccine effectiveness of 80%. This finding is similar to an analysis of Phase III trial results (1,2,7) and two other recent estimates of vaccine effectiveness for partial immunization with Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine among health care personnel, including a vaccine effectiveness (≥21 days after first dose) of 72% (95% CI = 58%–86%) against PCR-confirmed infection identified by routine testing in the United Kingdom (4) and a vaccine effectiveness (>14 days after first dose) of 60% (95% CI = 38%–74%) against PCR-confirmed infection identified by records review in Israel (5). This finding is also consistent with early descriptive findings of SARS-CoV-2 employee and clinical testing results by mRNA vaccination status in the United States (8,9)."



We can use the previous studies as guidelines but since we're not following the same protocols as the studies, we should expect the results to have some variance as well.

Last edited by trippythings (4/23/2021 10:15 am)


Trip Reports & Campsite Pictures
www.algonquinbeyond.com
 

4/26/2021 6:05 am  #41


Re: may 20 th opener on friends of algonquin park update sat apr 17th

Excellent points, trippythings.  From the literature I have reviewed in the past, there is not a drop-off in efficacy of that first dose for 3-4 months following administration; the approach Canada has employed mirrors what the UK initiated in a larger scale.  But the research on single-dose application is far less frequent so there will be many unanswered questions around that specific issue.

There was a bit of good news published over the weekend; Israel, who leads the world in most measures of vaccination, had their first day with zero Covid-related deaths reported for the first time in 10 months.

 

4/27/2021 2:40 pm  #42


Re: may 20 th opener on friends of algonquin park update sat apr 17th

Whats frustrates me is the lack of common sense and subsequent lack of explanation.  For example where I live playgrounds are open but tennis courts are not ... if I go past a playground on a weekend its full of kids and also parents mingling on the picnic tables ,,, no masks or social distance.  But the tennis court beside it is closed .. tennis is a game where you are pretty much always socially distanced when you play. Nobody has ever been able to explain that to us.  Same with backcountry camping ... the science is pretty clear about how long covid lives in the open weather ... not long.  Surely given the science they can make it work.  Sorry if  this has already been mentioned since I didnt read through all the posts. Very frustrating.  

 

4/27/2021 2:55 pm  #43


Re: may 20 th opener on friends of algonquin park update sat apr 17th

Actually I was also going to ask others in Ontario ... are people in your area following the stay at home order?  Are there any tickets being handed out ?  I live south of Ottawa and if its a nice day on the weekend for example people are entertaining guests the same as they do normally (or dam close to it) ... kids and parents gather to socialize on a friday and sat PM and are not hiding it ... but nothing is really being done for enforcement.  I'm not saying there should be a crackdown but its hard to accept the doom and gloom from the province and yet see no tickets being handed out.  We even had a protest from an MPP who came to my town with 200 people to a restaurant and gathered all evening  ... no masks and no social distance and to my knowledge not 1 ticket handed out yet.  Yet I would be ticketed for sure if they saw me put up a tent all by my lonesome  in Algonquin park ...   zero chance I would spread covid ... can someone explain the to me ... and my area actually has a high case count for covid (almost every school had covid before the shutdown)

(thanks for the vent ... )

 

4/27/2021 3:12 pm  #44


Re: may 20 th opener on friends of algonquin park update sat apr 17th

As far as playgrounds vs tennis courts. I have no idea.

In terms of camping, they just don’t want people travelling long distances away from home and the guaranteed things that happen on those trips (gas/snacks/restaurants etc...) as well as unexpected things that can happen (car break down, flat tire etc...)

As with everything in life small numbers of people ruin it for everyone. 99+% of people could go to Algonquin/play tennis/play golf etc with no issues but the government likes to paint and There are no artists in the government, only buckets of paint to toss at the mobs.

 

4/27/2021 6:39 pm  #45


Re: may 20 th opener on friends of algonquin park update sat apr 17th

The 99% argument comes up all the time, but is totally false. The 99% follow regulations, no matter how random and counterproductive.

The other 1% disobeys all regulations and there is minimal consequence.

Here in London over the weekend:
- Golf course open over the weekend: no charges
- Church of God holds Sunday service with 100s of people in indoor attendance (INCLUDING and MPP and am MP): 3 charges, 6 tickets.

These regulations are not based in science, and again those who break rules do so wantonly without consequence.

Edit: links:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/hillier-sloan-aylmer-church-charges-covid-19-1.6003365

https://lfpress.com/news/local-news/covid-19-why-didnt-police-intervene-when-a-tillsonburg-golf-course-reopened

Last edited by Marko_Mrko (4/27/2021 6:46 pm)

 

4/28/2021 6:08 pm  #46


Re: may 20 th opener on friends of algonquin park update sat apr 17th

Oooh look I can drive across the province to line up with hundreds of people to buy cheap tomatoes. boy I sure am glad none of these people are camping right now in the backcountry, infecting others in close proximity to their lake:

https://beta.ctvnews.ca/local/windsor/2021/4/27/1_5404266.html

Yes, people did drive from across the province for a $5 skid of tomatoes. Yes, hundreds. it's in the article.

Again, to be absolutely clear: I am very pro lockdown. but if the lockdown is severe enough to have to shut down backcountry camping, allowing this other insanity and not enforcing anything is absolutely insane.

There are only two possibilities:
1. complete and utter incompetence
2. intentional selective punishment of a part of society

either way, it's not cool.

 

4/29/2021 1:48 pm  #47


Re: may 20 th opener on friends of algonquin park update sat apr 17th

Anyone else think it's incredibly unlikely Ontario will re-open the province exactly in time for the May long weekend? Could you imagine the exodus to cottage country that day? 

I have a trip booked that starts on Friday the 21st, but I feel like I should be hedging my bets and making another booking for just after the long weekend. 
 

 

4/29/2021 2:02 pm  #48


Re: may 20 th opener on friends of algonquin park update sat apr 17th

Uppa wrote:

Anyone else think it's incredibly unlikely Ontario will re-open the province exactly in time for the May long weekend? Could you imagine the exodus to cottage country that day? 

I have a trip booked that starts on Friday the 21st, but I feel like I should be hedging my bets and making another booking for just after the long weekend. 
 

 
You can't hold two bookings at one time. Unless you made the other booking in your wife's name then transferred it to you. Combing all the Ontario Parks reservation angst into one thread. LOL!

 

4/29/2021 2:20 pm  #49


Re: may 20 th opener on friends of algonquin park update sat apr 17th

Uppa wrote:

Anyone else think it's incredibly unlikely Ontario will re-open the province exactly in time for the May long weekend? Could you imagine the exodus to cottage country that day? 

I have a trip booked that starts on Friday the 21st, but I feel like I should be hedging my bets and making another booking for just after the long weekend. 
 

I hate to break it to you but people will be going anyway. I live it cottage country and there are tons of people up here every weekend
 

 

4/29/2021 2:36 pm  #50


Re: may 20 th opener on friends of algonquin park update sat apr 17th

OTCanadienne wrote:

Uppa wrote:

Anyone else think it's incredibly unlikely Ontario will re-open the province exactly in time for the May long weekend? Could you imagine the exodus to cottage country that day? 

I have a trip booked that starts on Friday the 21st, but I feel like I should be hedging my bets and making another booking for just after the long weekend. 
 

I hate to break it to you but people will be going anyway. I live it cottage country and there are tons of people up here every weekend
 

 
Fact.

Algonquin is a bit different as you can’t park overnight without drawing attention in most of the access points.

Cottages are pretty wide open already.

 

4/29/2021 4:01 pm  #51


Re: may 20 th opener on friends of algonquin park update sat apr 17th

MartinG wrote:

You can't hold two bookings at one time. Unless you made the other booking in your wife's name then transferred it to you. Combing all the Ontario Parks reservation angst into one thread. LOL!

In order to properly follow the rules, I'll put the second reservation in my wife's name, list it on Kijiji and buy it from her. Wait, that can't be right. 
And yeah, I know a lot of people will be heading up regardless, but from a camping perspective I feel like maybe they're going to prefer a soft opening. The first day of camping season being the start of the May long weekend just doesn't sound like a sane idea. 

But I guess we'll know soon enough!



 

Last edited by Uppa (4/29/2021 4:01 pm)

 

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