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3/08/2021 3:27 pm  #1


Ice Out 2021

So what are we thinking for an ice out date this year?

Anyone in the area have a sense of current ice thickness etc..?


We do not go to the green woods and crystal waters to rough it, we go to smooth it.
 - George Washington Sears
 

3/08/2021 8:09 pm  #2


Re: Ice Out 2021

i drove through algonquin,, highway 60 this morning,, (freezing rain trip)  smoke creek is open and a lot of slush on the lakes all along  the highway corridor,,  many trees downs all over. some trees hanging on telephone lines or just laying stacked up against each other.  
    i did notice 2 trucks with empty snowmobile trailers parked near rock lake access road.  i guess there is some ice fishing going on. imagine that.  follow the rock lake access road all the way into stringer lake , rence harry and welcome lake  ??   
 

 

3/09/2021 9:42 am  #3


Re: Ice Out 2021

Ice was about 18" thick 30 minutes south of Bancroft on Saturday, which is typical for this time of year as the snow cover melts down but nights stay cold (forecast for that area was -18C on Saturday night). 

Looking at Lake of Two Rivers, there are a few warm days this week, but then lows of -11C or colder forecast for Friday/Saturday/Sunday which is still building ice. 

I'm thinking that we should start referring to March as the 'month of false hopes' if you are hoping for an early ice out, or the 'month of excessive fear' if you are worried that things are warming up too fast. 

Oh, I'll still throw out an ice out guess of May 3rd**, but it won't be until at least the first week of April that I'll start having any confidence in a prediction. 

**(statistically based on 3rd order polynomial regression of the Opeongo ice out dates since 1964 with a coefficient of correlation of 0.0956 ie: less than 10% confidence, but that is still about 2.5X higher confidence than a simple linear regression)
 

 

3/09/2021 9:55 am  #4


Re: Ice Out 2021

(statistically based on 3rd order polynomial regression of the Opeongo ice out dates since 1964 with a coefficient of correlation of 0.0956 ie: less than 10% confidence, but that is still about 2.5X higher confidence than a simple linear regression).

Well, obviously.  What you really should be doing is solving for X, and I found it way faster than you.  it is just to the right of the "2.5".  And my coefficient of correlation with that result is 1.0.  Take that!  

May 2nd.  It's my sister's birthday.

 

3/09/2021 10:05 am  #5


Re: Ice Out 2021

May 5th.  That's my sister's birthday lol.


If life gives you lemons, go fishing.
 

3/09/2021 1:12 pm  #6


Re: Ice Out 2021

May the fourth. . . . . . . . .  just cuz

 

3/09/2021 2:15 pm  #7


Re: Ice Out 2021

Screw it. I'm getting my hopes up. April 12th because that's my sister's birthday.

 

3/09/2021 2:39 pm  #8


Re: Ice Out 2021

I guessed April 23 in the AO ice out contest but I was intentionally optimistic. Thinking it will be a little later than that but still earlier than the avg RobW stated. April 30th maybe. I don’t have a sister and my brother’s birthday is Nov 21.  Pretty confident we can do better than that.


We do not go to the green woods and crystal waters to rough it, we go to smooth it.
 - George Washington Sears
     Thread Starter
 

3/09/2021 2:52 pm  #9


Re: Ice Out 2021

Well, the average for the decade 2011 through 2020 was April 29th which was 3 days later than the April 26th average for the preceding decade from 2001 - 2010 and 4 days later than the decade from 1991 - 2000. In fact, it was in line with the decade from 1981 - 1990. 

A straight linear regression would predict April 26th (probably late on the 25th but not declared out until the 26th.) but that drops to under a 4% probability. 

All that fancy prediction stuff was just a matter of putting the Opeongo ice out dates in a spreadsheet and throwing a trendline on it to see what it looked liked. https://cdn.boardhost.com/emoticons/cool.png


I've gone with my birthday in mid April before, but that never works for me. https://cdn.boardhost.com/emoticons/sad.png
 

I'm just hoping we actually get an early May fishing trip in this year. It would be the first one in 3 years for me. 

 

3/09/2021 6:56 pm  #10


Re: Ice Out 2021

May 9th for Ope. 

 

3/19/2021 8:55 am  #11


Re: Ice Out 2021

Long range forecast at Canoe Lake looks pretty good right now. Daytime temps and even a few nights above zero for most of the next 14 days. Keeping my fingers crossed this isn’t a head fake and that April doesn’t start with a blizzard. (Although now that I’ve gone and jinxed it by writing this it’s pretty much guaranteed to happen).

 

3/19/2021 9:05 am  #12


Re: Ice Out 2021

I just got back from a Mew Lake yurt trip yesterday.  This was our third “spring break” yurt trip to Mew.  Of the 3 trips this one was the warmest.  The skating rink at the campground wasn’t being flooded anymore.  Not sure if that was related to the Covid shutdown but like everyone else on the board I’m hopeful for an early ice out.  I’m taking that as a sign.  (Fingers crossed)

 

3/19/2021 9:52 am  #13


Re: Ice Out 2021

Blue mountain is making snow right now in Barrie. Maybe they know something we don’t.

 

4/01/2021 5:37 am  #14


Re: Ice Out 2021

I know I will be canoeing this Easter weekend in the North Bay area https://cdn.boardhost.com/emoticons/grin.png

Last edited by ATVenture (4/01/2021 5:37 am)

 

4/09/2021 8:11 pm  #15


Re: Ice Out 2021

Not that it matters much right now in terms of plans, but anyone up in or near the Park have an update on how the ice is going?

 

4/10/2021 5:27 am  #16


Re: Ice Out 2021

LOTR looks pretty much open. Given the Temps and rain I expect ice out will be today or end of day tomorrow.

https://www.algonquinpark.on.ca/news/ice-out.php

Last edited by MartinG (4/10/2021 5:32 am)

 

4/10/2021 7:37 am  #17


Re: Ice Out 2021

   i strongly believe that ice out is a mute point,, things are bad and will not get better unless the guy? in ottawa grows a spine and closes down all air ports that have international flights arriving!!! a  large loop hole eh?
   following the science will re-enforce  my opinion,, this is not rocket surgery,,

Last edited by swedish pimple (4/10/2021 7:37 am)

 

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