My new process has been to optimistically book a trip early in May. (Right now I have a trip booked starting May 4th.) If things don’t look positive as we head towards April I book a back up trip which for me because of family obligations on the mother’s day weekend and the May long weekend always falls into the 3rd week which isn’t ideal from a bug situation but there you have it.

I booked a back up trip starting May 23rd a few days ago.

I'll be booking for the week of May 13th, but I am fully open to adjusting to the week of the 20th...might happen this year, but one never knows how much sunshine we get!

I am booked for May 3. Optimistic I know, but that week is likely the only time I can go - we are planning to loop from Cedar to Lavieille and back.

Should the weather not cooperate, are there any recommendations for alternative destinations where ice might be out earlier and that would accommodate a 6 night trip???

I'll be surprised if its an early one this year. Small backcountry lakes around me in the dorset area have over 2ft still. I am guessing second week of May sadly. In better news, im heading out ice fishing in a few hrs.

Well... if we want to start tracking "permit available" dates, that would be a new metric. To make the ice out date tracking at all consistent we need to keep that based on the established 'standard'. ;-)

Personally I think it is too early to worry about May dates yet. 3 weeks of seasonal weather in April would give an April ice out. Once we hit April 1st, then I'll start having a more serious opinion as to whether it will drag out to May. IT's still March and we are already seeing overnight lows that are mostly in the single digit negatives this week. That isn't "ice building" cold like we were seeing last year, so any loss during the daytime won't be recovered over night. Don't forget that with the right temperatures and sunlight, ice that is 12" thick will 'candle' and basically just fall apart. 

Now, if we get a week in the first half of April with daytime highs below 0C and overnight lows below -16C, then we can start thinking about a May ice out. 

(Snowmobile trails are mostly closed now, so my head is definitely switching to open water mode.)
 

Some lakes are already breaking up in the Muskoka region.  There was 7 ft. of snow outside my window from the snowplow storing snow from my parking lot.  It is now down to 3 feet.  All we need is about a week's weather of highs and lows above freezing.  Daytime sun definitely helps too.  This contributes to 24 hours of ice shrinking and snow disappearing.  April definitely has to be better this year than last year.....right????  I plan on going in on my trip on May 6th.  I don't see a problem at this moment of this not happening.

Moonman wrote:

I gonna chime in and say ice out on Wed. May 1...I think flooding might be an issue this year though...

I have a good feeling about this prediction.

RobW I love your wishful enthusiasm. 

As we enter April these next 3 weeks are crucial.

Fingers crossed folks!! 
 

Don't get too excited comparing to April 1st as southern Ontario got about 3" of snow on the weekend. Ground was bare up to Peterborough (at least) before the weekend. 

The Bay of Quinte has opened up more since then but the snowline really hasn't moved north and the fresh snow has probably slowed down the melt on Simcoe by increasing the reflection of sunlight.