Algonquin Adventures / 2018 Ice Out Predictions?

**Posted by ShawnD** 4/09/2018 8:23 am

breed85 wrote:
Interesting.
A year ago this Wednesday (April 11)... AO tweeted out this pic from Source lake (18" of ice).
https://twitter.com/algonquinoutfit/status/851933311928807425

Hmm interesting so we are about half a foot behind last year on Source and ice out in 2017 was April 25th..
If the long range forecast was cooperating I wouldn't even be thinking about my May 5th trip start but temp forecasts are a little concerning. Overnight temps aren't set to move above zero until April 21 in most of AP.
She is gonna be close for me I think.
I'd like to revise by previous Ice out guess..

Last edited by ShawnD (4/09/2018 8:30 am)

**Posted by pjr2013** 4/09/2018 11:01 am

Oh yeah, it is. A very bad thing.

That's why our spring trip departure is Monday May 14th...!

Uppa wrote:
I was supposed to head into the park on May 4th. While I think that date might end up being bang-on opening day this year, I've got too many moving parts involved in my vacation plans to take the risk. So I just pushed it back 10 days. I wouldn't have moved it back quite that far, but according to my wife, me being in Algonquin on Mother's day is "a bad thing".

**Posted by boknows** 4/09/2018 11:30 am

YIKES!!!!! Just read on facebook that there is still 25 inches of ice on Source Lake.

A friend in Whitney tells me they are still snowshoeing and skiing the Leaf Lake ski trail. Recently, they received close to 20 cm of snow and the temps are still rather cold both day and during the night.

If I had to make a guess, I would say ice out around May 6th.

**Posted by RobW** 4/09/2018 1:44 pm

boknows wrote:
If I had to make a guess, I would say ice out around May 6th.

I already used up my first guess and my do-over but I'd say you're probably in about the right range.

**Posted by Shayne74** 4/09/2018 2:01 pm

The ice isn't coming out this year. They just decided to keep it cold up there.

Last edited by Shayne74 (4/09/2018 2:02 pm)

**Posted by AlgonquinLakes** 4/09/2018 2:12 pm

Shayne74 wrote:
The ice isn't coming out this year. They just decided to keep it cold up there.

I think Shayne's got it. My revised ice out estimate is November 3, followed by ice up on November 5. But man, November 4 is going to be a great day for paddling.

**Posted by trippythings** 4/09/2018 10:52 pm

If ice out is later than average, does that usually mean black flies will start hatching/biting later than average as well? Or are the two not directly related in that sense.

I'm considering a trip around May 16-20 but not sure if that's too late if I'm trying to avoid the bugs

**Posted by RobW** 4/10/2018 8:07 am

trippythings wrote:
If ice out is later than average, does that usually mean black flies will start hatching/biting later than average as well? Or are the two not directly related in that sense.

The blackfly hatch is directly related to water temperature. You're pretty easily safe for a week or so after ice out. After that the water temp has a lot more to do with the current weather than when the ice finally melted.

**Posted by vanslyke** 4/10/2018 8:54 am

trippythings wrote:
If ice out is later than average, does that usually mean black flies will start hatching/biting later than average as well? Or are the two not directly related in that sense.

I'm considering a trip around May 16-20 but not sure if that's too late if I'm trying to avoid the bugs

It would usually mean a later hatch.
I have a trip may 11th-14th, the way things are looking I think my group and I may beat the black flies this year. A week or so later may not be the case...

**Posted by trippythings** 4/10/2018 9:02 am

Thanks for the replies. I guess I’ll plan a tentative trip and hope for the best

**Posted by Was Hardcore** 4/10/2018 10:28 am

So just a quick question that someone might know the answer to. If I made a backcountry reservation and the park cancels back country activity for that week do I get a full refund including the reservation fee?

http://www.youtube.com/user/kayakcamper · **Posted by Uppa** 4/10/2018 11:03 am

You'll get a phone call from the reservations people. You'll be allowed to rebook (free) or cancel with a full refund.

**Posted by breed85** 4/10/2018 11:20 am

Was Hardcore wrote:
So just a quick question that someone might know the answer to. If I made a backcountry reservation and the park cancels back country activity for that week do I get a full refund including the reservation fee?

I was wondering the same thing because I already made a change (to shorten trip) previously and paid a penalty; not a big deal, but I wonder if that change penalty would get refunded too...

Last edited by breed85 (4/10/2018 11:21 am)

**Posted by andrewr0520** 4/10/2018 11:49 am

Yep, happened to me last year. Rain Lake Access was delayed, and I had made 2 or 3 changes prior to the date. They fully refunded me everything, and then I just re-booked at the park for the East Gate access.

**Posted by ATVenture** 4/11/2018 6:57 am

I went out to Kiosk yesterday morning and for the fist time in 2 solid years I could not under any circumstances make it to the access point. There was 30cm of fresh snow on the road, and my car had no chance. I have been going out there frequently in the winter for the last 3 years and this is the first time I couldn't make it to the lake without getting stuck. Last year at this time I could drive through the campground completely without worry.
They are still grooming the snowmobile trail on the Brent Road, a friend of mine sent me a picture from last weekend and there is 3+ feet of snow cover on the road.
We are due for 35-45cm of fresh snow here in North Bay between Fri-Mon, and no warm temps in the forecast yet]. What the hell is going on??

http://www.youtube.com/user/kayakcamper · **Posted by Uppa** 4/11/2018 7:05 am

For anyone who doesn't recall from past year ice-out threads, ATVenture is consistently the most optimistic poster - ice-out is always imminent. When even he is spouting doom and gloom, we might as well all go back into hibernation

**Posted by ATVenture** 4/11/2018 7:18 am

Uppa wrote:
For anyone who doesn't recall from past year ice-out threads, ATVenture is consistently the most optimistic poster - ice-out is always imminent. When even he is spouting doom and gloom, we might as well all go back into hibernation

I might be a little biased this year though, considering I just bought a brand new snowmobile yesterday. Haha!
But seriously, the delayed Spring had nothing to do with the purchase, it was just a wicked deal in general.. but I will definitely be putting a few km on it before the snow is gone.
I don't know how bad it is down South, but I can't recall a Spring like this in my lifetime, its CRAZY! We haven't seen a single day above 7 degrees yet, and even that we've only had one of. Last year at this time the ice was completely off Simcoe (for about a week now), this year its still WHITE in most places. Sure the breakup has started, but there's still lots of ice out there!