Algonquin Adventures / 2018 Ice Out Predictions?

**Posted by ATVenture** 3/26/2018 7:13 am

Chuck Enwinde wrote:
Was on one of the bigger lakes near Huntsville yesterday and measured 16" of ice. I'll be back up this coming weekend. We'll see how much ice we lose with the warmer temps and rain in the forecast.

How was the fishing?

**Posted by spicol** 3/26/2018 10:12 am

No significant sun, rain or wind expected over the next two weeks. Below average temps.

I'll say April 28th.

**Posted by swedish pimple** 3/26/2018 5:34 pm

lots of rain on the way for the my kawartha region, just what is needed,,
many fire bands have been announced today for my area, 2 weeks minimum .
the ice is not going any where unit the night time temps start to rise,, high winds really help to break up the ice. as suggested,
i don't think that there will be much of a seasonal transition pattern, the weather will remain the same, then it will be like a switch has been turned on. bam,, warmer than average temps. and people scrambling to make a reservations.

**Posted by Chuck Enwinde** 3/27/2018 1:48 am

ATVenture wrote:
Chuck Enwinde wrote:
Was on one of the bigger lakes near Huntsville yesterday and measured 16" of ice. I'll be back up this coming weekend. We'll see how much ice we lose with the warmer temps and rain in the forecast.
How was the fishing?

Fishing was OK. I was after Moby the pike using a couple of big frozen herring I got from Nipissing earlier in the season. . Got one pike about 10lbs and one Laker about 7lbs. Moby did not make an appearance. Thinking this Friday might be a good one

**Posted by ATVenture** 3/29/2018 4:57 pm

Tried to drive the Brent Road today, could only make it in about 3km off the highway, the road turns into a snowmobile trail which is still considered open. Lol. Maybe next week Ill bring my snowmobile.

**Posted by AlgonquinLakes** 3/29/2018 7:16 pm

I drove across 60 today and there was still lots of ice. It wasn’t super encouraging. I’m beginning to think my April 14 pick is trouble.

This was the view at Two Rivers.

Last edited by AlgonquinLakes (3/29/2018 8:53 pm)

**Posted by ATVenture** 3/30/2018 8:26 am

I'm not sure about ice thickness, but we are ahead of last year in terms of snow on the ground. There is far less this year than their was at the same time last year. This will allow the shorelines to hopefully open up quicker when we get some more warm days with sun. There were a few parts of Kiosk that were opening slightly at shore, but still lonnnng ways to go!

**Posted by Chuck Enwinde** 3/31/2018 7:50 am

Was back up in Huntsville yesterday and measured 12 inches of ice on one of the bigger lakes. Same spot had 16 inches last Sunday.

**Posted by RobW** 4/01/2018 8:02 pm

We were drilling through 18"+ of ice at the cottage today. At least 12" of that was clear ice, not white ice. That's an hour south of Hwy 60 off Hwy 62. Based on that ice thickness and looking at the 14 day forecast for our area, I'm expecting it to be at least another 2 weeks before our lake opens up. That's usually 1-2 weeks before the Hwy 60 lakes open up in the park.

We'll see what happens but despite the very limited snow cover I think we're on track for a fairly typical ice out date.

**Posted by ATVenture** 4/02/2018 7:09 am

Woke up this morning to more snow on the ground and -15 on the thermometer. It doesn't feel like Spring is ever going to come around here in North Bay. All of the highs are below 0 for the next week, with some lows around -15. I don't think we are going to see much of a change around here in the next week or so, but after next week I think we are going to get into some serious wind, rain, and warmer temps.
My new prediction is April 20.

**Posted by swedish pimple** 4/02/2018 8:03 am

may 5th ice out,, or when the top of the house lets us go into da park

Last edited by swedish pimple (4/02/2018 8:04 am)

**Posted by vanslyke** 4/02/2018 9:55 am

I have a trip planned for may 11th-14. Im thinking ice will only be out for a week-two weeks tops. Makes for a chillier trip but I prefer that to swarms of black flies lol.

**Posted by breed85** 4/02/2018 10:15 am

I've been starting to think of alternate plans for my May 3-6 weekend.
Getting worried...

**Posted by hartski** 4/02/2018 10:33 am

I also have an early trip booked but I am not going to begin worrying just yet. Why? In comparison to last year, modis images show we are further ahead. Also, despite the first week of April appearing to be a bit chilly, for what its worth the long term forecast shows a seasonal warming trend. In my experience, those middle weeks of April are most determinate of ice out, not this week. If that is interrupted or delayed I will worry. For now, I'm predicting a typical ice out, between the 27th and 29th.

**Posted by MatteoP** 4/03/2018 9:47 am

How do you guys think the 30+ cm of snow this week, will affect the melt??
That is a lot of snow!! Another 5-10 on Friday!!!

**Posted by Dead_Weight (DW)** 4/03/2018 10:19 am

don't shoot me but I picked may 10th ...

**Posted by RobW** 4/03/2018 10:31 am

Looking at the forecast temperatures, I doubt there will be anywhere near 10-15cm of snow accumulated today or the 10cm forecast for tomorrow. With temps hovering above 0 today and forecast for -1 tomorrow, it's more likely that it will be rain/freezing rain. Env Canada seems to have adapted a policy of forecasting the max possible precipitation rather than the statistically most likely amounts.

A really rough ratio of snow:rain volume is 10:1. Lots (and lots and lots) of variables but as a ball park 10 cm of snow is equivalent to only 1 cm of rain. So, if the forecast precipitation comes down as rain, then it's only 1 - 1.5cm of rain today and 1 cm or rain tomorrow.

Even if snow does accumulate it's still white snow on top of white ice so it won't have much impact on how much sunlight is reflected or how much heat is absorbed.