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3/19/2017 6:51 am  #1


So when does the ice-out prediction conversation start???

Seriously people, am I breaking a forum rule asking this question? I've been lurking around for the past week or so searching for the 2017 version of this topic (my personal perennial favourite) but haven't seen anything. Last year I'm pretty sure it started earlier in March and okay, this past week may have seemed to set us back a little but where I am most of the snow that fell a few days ago has already melted off. So??? I think it's time mother nature cooperated and gave us a mid-April start to the paddling season. Who's with me? If I circulate a petition can I count on your support? http://cdn.boardhost.com/emoticons/happy.png

 

3/19/2017 7:22 am  #2


Re: So when does the ice-out prediction conversation start???

I say April 15. The winter was long and mild, with a good amount of snow accumulation on top of the ice for the most part. As a result the ice is significantly thinner in most places than it is most years. That combined with the long range forecast (only one high below zero) I can't see it lasting past trout opener, that's for sure! 
Both photos were taken at Kiosk lake early last week.
http://i65.tinypic.com/2wmjerc.jpg
http://i64.tinypic.com/2ecouw5.jpg


Looking at my photos from last March at Kiosk there is a huge difference. Last year at this time there was at least 20cm more snow than there is now, and you could safely walk out onto the ice.

Last edited by ATVenture (3/19/2017 7:24 am)

 

3/19/2017 8:09 am  #3


Re: So when does the ice-out prediction conversation start???

I'd love an early ice out - preferably without any extra boondoggling about restricting access immediately thereafter.

Remember, you can view new satellite images taken daily on the NOAA Coast Watch website. The link for the Great Lakes region is here. 2-3 photos are uploaded daily. It's a great resource to watch the ice slowly dissipate from the bottom of the province up. Of course not every day will be cloud-free and sometimes you have to wait a couple days for a crystal clear image - just depends on the weather. 

 

3/19/2017 9:32 am  #4


Re: So when does the ice-out prediction conversation start???

I won't pick a date but I'll cautiously predict an early ice-out. I was on the Hwy 60 corridor last weekend, and the weather was cold but due to the recent warm spell and rain there was very little snow cover... there were bare patches on the south-facing slopes of road cuts etc, and most importantly the lakes were bare ice. I even saw people ice skating on Mew Lake. This is an important factor since sunlight through the ice is what warms the lakes and ultimately melts the ice cover from below, so snow cover is the big delaying factor.

There was also more open water than I usually see in the winter... certainly any flowing river was wide open, even the very slow Smoke Creek where it crosses the highway between Smoke and Tea, there was open water around the outlet of LoTR and in Whitney on both sides of the dam. So I would say unless the rest of this month brings not only deep cold but heavy snow -- and the forecast suggests it will not -- ATVenture is probably about right.

 

3/19/2017 12:46 pm  #5


Re: So when does the ice-out prediction conversation start???

It's great having eyes on the ice, so to speak. I haven't been to the park at all this winter so would otherwise have no idea what it looks like up there. 

My pessimistic response is that this feels a lot like last year so far. A mild winter that should have translated to an early ice-out, but Spring was late and cold, and ice-out trickled into May. It wouldn't surprise me if it's another early May ice out this year, but I will be very happy to be wrong - as long as ice-out precedes my prediction that is!

 

 

3/20/2017 6:02 am  #6


Re: So when does the ice-out prediction conversation start???

Peek wrote:

I'd love an early ice out - preferably without any extra boondoggling about restricting access immediately thereafter.
Remember, you can view new satellite images taken daily on the NOAA Coast Watch website. The link for the Great Lakes region is here. 

Agreed re. "boondoggling" -- great word btw!! I feel like stealing this as my new User ID. Thanks for the reminder about the NOAA site as well. I think my eyes must be playing tricks on me; pics from yesterday make it look like there are great stretches of open river on the Pet and even the Nip west of Cedar. But then DanPM's on-the-ground update from the Highway 60 corridor is consistent with this. Nice!

Hey ATVenture, great pics from Kiosk! Looking forward to getting back up there this year for sure. Can't seem to place that first shot--is that looking back northwestward to the outlet of the Amable du Fond?

Uppa - no more reminders of last year please. My entire vacation calendar for the year got screwed up by that delay. But that's not going to happen this year. I'm not even going to book anything for May until everything is confirmed open. Meanwhile if I can squeeze in a long weekend in April, that should help control the cravings.

I'll say April 16th since the 15th is already taken.
 

     Thread Starter
 

3/20/2017 6:23 am  #7


Re: So when does the ice-out prediction conversation start???

I've got a fishing weekend booked May 5th, 6th and out on the 7th.
It doesn't matter when it's out to me, as long as it's out before then! http://cdn.boardhost.com/emoticons/happy.png

 

3/20/2017 7:11 am  #8


Re: So when does the ice-out prediction conversation start???

Algonquin Outfitters is launching their 2017 Algonquin Park Ice Out Contest today.

http://www.algonquinadventures.com/news/images/IOC.jpg

 

3/20/2017 8:58 am  #9


Re: So when does the ice-out prediction conversation start???

I placed my bet! I mean, my guess.

Now it's just a waiting game..

 

3/20/2017 9:12 am  #10


Re: So when does the ice-out prediction conversation start???

The optimism here is rubbing off on me. I picked an April date for the contest. Plus I'm going to move forward my (already booked) camping trip by a week as I went pretty conservative with the starting date. 

 

3/20/2017 7:22 pm  #11


Re: So when does the ice-out prediction conversation start???

DanPM wrote:

I won't pick a date but I'll cautiously predict an early ice-out. I was on the Hwy 60 corridor last weekend, and the weather was cold but due to the recent warm spell and rain there was very little snow cover... there were bare patches on the south-facing slopes of road cuts etc, and most importantly the lakes were bare ice. I even saw people ice skating on Mew Lake. This is an important factor since sunlight through the ice is what warms the lakes and ultimately melts the ice cover from below, so snow cover is the big delaying factor.

Saturday afternoon? Likely you spotted our group. It was fairly easy to stay on the good ice and hop over the cracks that had formed. Not great for hockey but a very nice and cold outing. The morning had started out with minus 24 from what we could gather and a good breeze. Brrr!

I had booked a yurt back on Thanksgiving weekend and a couple of the lads stayed in a tent with electric heater. The hoops you need to jump through to get one of those things really shows how popular they are. After the freeze thaws that helped to make the lake skateable you also wind up with some treacherous conditions in the sites themselves. A reminder to bring a bag of sand next year. Crampons?

The drive in past Smoke Creek at this time of the year always has me chomping at the bit to have brought a canoe but the smart part of the brain puts the kibosh on that idea. The previous weekend would have been the time to get the boat out when camping at Pinery. The thin layer of ice in the old channel disappeared Sunday night and the put in is super easy.

As far as guessing ice out just ask me in June and I'll tell you when Tried talking some of my friends into a brook trout foray this spring but old age got in the way. Sigh.
 

 

3/20/2017 9:15 pm  #12


Re: So when does the ice-out prediction conversation start???

Haha yup, that's when we saw you... we spent Saturday skiing the Leaf Lake trail (the ski trail near the east gate) so at that point were driving from there back to the Wolf Den where we were staying.

Yeah, weird snow conditions. We went for a hike at Oxtongue Rapids on the Sunday and the trail for the most part was completely unbroken, yet we didn't need snowshoes at all because the snow was so crusty it held us up on top. On Saturday morning the lady at the west gate made it sound like the x-country ski conditions might be really awful but it wasn't bad at all.

Last edited by DanPM (3/20/2017 9:16 pm)

 

3/21/2017 6:41 am  #13


Re: So when does the ice-out prediction conversation start???

ATVenture, that first photo of Kiosk is stunningly beautiful. Did you use a filter when taking that one?

 

3/21/2017 7:18 am  #14


Re: So when does the ice-out prediction conversation start???

Blobsquatch wrote:

ATVenture, that first photo of Kiosk is stunningly beautiful. Did you use a filter when taking that one?

Thanks! No filter. The shot is 3 exposures in one though.

Last edited by ATVenture (3/21/2017 7:20 am)

 

3/22/2017 8:02 am  #15


Re: So when does the ice-out prediction conversation start???

We've also posted our first ice out report for the 2017 spring season.  Lots of photos from across Highway #60 corridor in this first report.  I'm hoping to get out to Opeongo in the next one.  Maybe even a drive down Rain Lake if there's interest.

http://algonquinoutfitters.com/algonquin-ice-2017/

http://algonquinoutfitters.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Algonquin-Park-Ice-Out-Report-2017.jpg

 

3/22/2017 8:24 am  #16


Re: So when does the ice-out prediction conversation start???

If we just reverse the sky and the ice, then that becomes a picture of open blue water on a cloudy day.

 

3/22/2017 8:04 pm  #17


Re: So when does the ice-out prediction conversation start???

SOOOOOOOOO excited to see this thread starting! lol my favourite/most hated time of the year: watching paint dry...I mean ice melt on government satellite images.

I feel like the lack of snow on the lakes is a good sign as we don't need the wind/rain to melt/blow it away before the sun can do its work and warm the water up. Also, the long range forecast (which in my mind is an oxymoron but I digress haha) looks a lot nicer then last year so the gut feeling is a decent mid/3rd week of April ice out.

Does anyone know of any ice depth measurements out there yet?

Cheers!


"Everyone must believe in something. I believe I'll go Canoeing" - Henry David Thoreau
 

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